What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 101218


Saturday, December 08, 2018 08:00 AM / Proshare Content 


Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 071218

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From the Editor’s Desk 

Afrinvest Research Projects Real GDP Growth to Recover in Q3:2018 to 2.1%

Source: Afrinvest Weekly Update - December 07, 2018

Based on the calendar of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the third quarter GDP report for 2018 will be published on Monday December 10, 2018. Ahead of the release, we present the considerations that shaped our estimates. We estimate real GDP growth for Q3:2018 at 2.1% Y-o-Y, an improvement over the growth rates of 2.0% and 1.5% recorded in Q1 and Q2:2018 respectively. We attribute the expected faster expansion in real GDP to improvement in the oil sector as well as steady growth in the non-oil sector. 

After a contraction in Q2:2018 in the oil sector, we predict a return to growth due to a recovery in oil production and higher oil prices. According to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, oil production increased to an average of 2.1mb/d in Q3:2018, 6.1% growth over 1.98mb/d in the corresponding quarter of 2017 and 14.1% higher than in the previous quarter. Oil price was also 45.9% stronger at an average of US$75.50b/d in Q3:2018 compared with the same period of 2017.

In the non-oil sector, we expect a more broad-based expansion. This will be driven by a slight recovery in agriculture growth which had slumped to the lowest quarterly growth on record in Q2:2018. The CBN reported better agriculture activity in Q3:2018 due to rainfall and the harvest of crops such as cereals and tubers. However, conflict and flooding in the Middle-Belt continue to be a challenge to agriculture, thus our growth expectations are moderate. In manufacturing, we expect a sustained positive performance due to increased activities as shown by the Purchasing Managers’ Index during the quarter. In services, telecommunications sector is expected to continue to provide a boost, as well as large sub-sectors such as trade and real estate, which were still in the negative region in Q2:2018. However, we note that the persistently weak consumer spending softened our projections of an outperformance in the non-oil sector when agriculture is excluded. 



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Other Developments 

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Monday, December 10, 2018 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product by Output Report (Q3 2018)  and Q3 2018 Foreign Trade Statistics Report


Tuesday, December 11, 2018 

Multivverse Mining & Exploration Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting at  Ace- Olivia City Mall, 2nd Floor City Mall, Onikan, Lagos  while the Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFINA)  holds the Access to Financial Services in Nigeria  at Eko Hotel & Suites Lagos 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the 2017 Sustainable Development Goal Indicators


Wednesday, December 12, 2018 

The MTN Nigeria will on this day hold the MTN Customer Service Dinner & Award Night at Four Point by Sheraton, Victoria Island Lagos  while the Pawn Group on same day will hold its End Of The Year Success Summit at Balmoral Convention Centre 6-8 Federal Palace Hotel Victoria Island Lagos 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Road Transport Data (Q3 2018)


Thursday, December 13, 2018           

Interlinked Technologies Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting at NECA House, Pl0t A2, Hakeem Balogun Street, Central Business District, Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos while the ValuAlliance Value Fund holds same at Colonades Hotel, 21 Alfred Rewane Road, Ikoyi, Lagos 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the  Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) price water Nov 2018, CPI and Inflation Report Nov 2018, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) price water Nov 2018, National Household Kerosine Price watch Nov 2018 ,Premium motor spirit (Petrol) price watch Nov 2018 and the Selected food Price Nov 2018


Friday December 14, 2018 

The  Nigerian - American Chamber of Commerce  will on this day hold the   2018 Annual Dinner Dance and Inauguration of the 18th President at Grand Ballroom Lagos Continental Hotel Kolo Abayomi Street, Victoria Island, Lagos while, the  National Bureau of Statistics will on same day release  the  Transport Fare watch (Nov2018)


Saturday December 15, 2018 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017


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