What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 060120

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Saturday, January 04, 2020 08:00 AM / Proshare Content


Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 030120 


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Editor's Pick 

Source:  Cordros 2020 Outlook / Macros and Markets  - January 03, 2020

 

Global Economy 

The global economy faces more turmoil in 2020, but we remain largely optimistic in our outlook, given supportive fiscal and monetary policies across major economies. On crude oil, supply adjustments will support prices in 2020, but demand will be the primary driver going forward. As such, we forecast Brent crude oil price will average c.USD60.00 per barrel in 2020.


Domestic Economy 

At home, Nigeria's fiscal authority is yet to implement any significant reform, and at the time of writing, there are no major structural readjustments slated to commence in 2020. While the economy should benefit from exchange rate stability given the still healthy FX reserves, possible implementation of VAT hike, the impending electricity tariff revision, and the impact of the continued land border closure on food prices will exert upward pressure on inflation. In response, we suspect that the monetary policy committee will leave the MPR unchanged, despite its recent focus to redirect credit to the private sector. Elsewhere, on the NGN10.6 trillion budget approved in 2020, we assumed a budget implementation rate of c.90.0%, and our scenario analysis suggests that the budget deficit could range between NGN2.83 trillion to NGN4.78 trillion.


Equities 

Our base case for equities posits muted stock market performance for the year. Fundamentals are not strong enough to drive a natural correction in the equities market, however, recent policy directives from the CBN might offer some respite to the domestic bourse in the absence of much needed market friendly reforms.


Fixed income 

For the fixed income market, our expectation for yields in 2020 is closely linked to the current sectioning of the fixed income market, and how long it is likely to last. In our view, this will be the major determinant of the direction of rates next year, among other factors including (1) persistence of trade tensions and how that will impact global growth, (2) policy response in major and the impact on the rate environments in these jurisdictions, (3) CBN's policy initiatives to boost credit to the private sector and (4) willingness of the MPC to maintain positive real return to investors. 


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Sunday, January 05, 2020

 

The GLOMACS Training and Consultancy will on this day commence its Seminar on Leadership Development at United Arab Emirates while the PetroKnowledge Training will on the same day commence a training on Petroleum Project Economics and Risk Analysis at United Arab Emirates


Monday, January 06, 2020

The HRODC Postgraduate Training Institute, A Postgraduate-Only Institution will on this day commence a training on Financial Risk Management Course - Diploma Postgraduate at United Arab Emirates while Capacity for Africa will on the same day being it’s training on Accounting Officers Course: Improving Accounting Skills in Lagos State, Nigeria

 

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

The Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos Nigeria will on this day hold its 5th Biennal Conference of the Africa Academy of Management with the theme Globalization, Pan Africanism, and the African Business Climate while the 2020 Nigeria Real Estate Market Outlook Breakfast Meeting will hold on the same day at Four Point by Sheraton, Victoria Island Lagos.


 

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Check out our Events Calendar for event details and follow us on Web, TV, APP and Social Media for updates as the week unfolds. Yours to Serve!

 

 

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Latest Videos This Past Week

 

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Previous Week(s) Market Outlook

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