Thursday
December 30, 2021 / 12:15 PM / by CSL Research / Header Image
Credit: WOAI
Many Nigerians believe the pandemic is over, yet the
current Covid-19 caseload in the country does not seem to portray that
narrative. Since the index case of the Omicron variant in the country on 1
December, the total number of confirmed cases has continued to rise. For the
past ten (10) days, the number of Covid-19 cases has averaged 1,750 daily, with
an all-time high of 4,035 recorded on 22 December. Currently, the total
confirmed cases stand at 240,387 and if compared to 214,218 recorded at the end
of November (a day before the index case), it shows that only December 2021
accounted for c.11% of the total confirmed cases since the official statistics
of confirmed cases in February 2020.
The figure points to the fact that the newly dreaded
variant is highly transmissible. The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that
this new variant has several mutations which could affect how it behaves,
though many aspects remain unclear. What is certain, however, is that the
country cannot afford to enforce national lockdowns. This is not only because
the initial lockdown measures brought out the age-long inherent weaknesses of
the Nigerian economy, leading to untold hardships for many Nigerians who are
daily wage earners but also because the government and political actors will be
reluctant to announce any lockdowns that could jeopardize their political
campaigns and rallies. However, of major concern is the variant's seemingly
sizable downside risk to the economic outlook, especially at a time, the
economy is leaning on a thin rope.
In essence, raising the budget estimate of brent price
from US$57/bbl. to US$62/bbl. by the legislators may appear ill-informed. The
onset of the covid-19 pandemic and its impact on oil prices led the country
into its second recession in 5 years. Though we do not anticipate the extent of
movement restrictions seen during the first wave, we believe the continued
spread of the infection will have some impact on the global economy and
Nigeria. That said, taking Covid-19 precautions such as social distancing,
wearing face masks, and handwashing alongside rapid vaccination should be the
loud chorus for us as a country as we expect to see political demonstrations in
subsequent months.
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