COVID-19: Probability of Fatalities

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Thursday, April 23, 2020 / 08:30 AM / By FDC Ltd / Header Image Credit: The Times Of Israel

 

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Covid-19 continues to ravage both developed and developing economics, heightening the risk of an economic recession. In the last five months, the number of global confirmed cases skyrocketed to over 2million with death cases rising to approximately 140,000. The US, Spain, Italy, Germany and France were the most hit countries while Libya, Benin, Gambia, Mauritania and Botswana were mildly affected. For Nigeria in particular, the total number of confirmed cases increased to over 400 with fatal cases crossing the single digit band.

 

The rapid spread of the virus has forced countries to deduce a correlation between the fatalities and socio-economic indicators such as life expectancy and median age as well as climatic conditions such as temperature. For instance, Italy with a life expectancy of 83.6 years, median age of 45.5 years and temperature of 13.45oC was one of the most hit economies while Benin with a life expectancy of 61.5 years, median age of 18.2 years and temperature of 27.55oC was among the least affected countries. It is in this light we sought to establish the correlation between fatal cases and the socioeconomic indicators and climate conditions of 20 countries. The observations consist of the 10 most hit economies and the 10 least economies.

 

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From the table above, there seems to be a strong positive correlation between life expectancy and fatalities as well median age and fatalities. This suggests that countries with high life expectancy and median age tend to be vulnerable to Covid-19 death. This is likely because these countries have a high aged population with low immune system and possible pre-existing health conditions. Also, there seems to be a negative correlation between temperature and fatalities. By implication, countries with hot and humid weather tend to be less vulnerable to Covid-19 death.

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd. 


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