South Africa’s Q1-19 GDP Result: On the Way to Another Recession?


Friday, June 14, 2019   / 05:00PM / United Capital Research  / Header Image Credit:SABC News


The Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) recently released South Africa’s GDP data for Q1-19. According to the report, momentum in Africa’s most advanced economy continues to falter amid myriads of economic and socio-political challenges. 

GDP plunged -3.2% in Q1-19 following a +1.4% expansion in the preceding quarter (Q4-18), reaffirming the prevalence of challenges in the S/African economy. Key among the challenges bedeviling the economy includes; rising debt burden, wide income inequality, increasing level of unemployment, epileptic power supply, and sharp declining activities in the mining sector, to mention but a few. 

A further search into the report showed that the country’s GDP was majorly dragged by weaker performance in the manufacturing, mining, and trade, catering & accommodation industries, all trending southwards by -8.8%, -10.8% and -3.6% respectively for the period under review. 

We note that the negative start in the country’s GDP growth rate for the year mirrors the beginning of the prior year, 2018, when it recorded declines in GDP growth for the first two consecutive quarters of the year driving the economy back into a (technical) recession. 

Though the swift cabinet reformation by the president Cyril Rhamaphosa, has been welcomed with much applaud, weobserve that the president most very quickly implement policy reforms to urgently address these challenges or risk the economy slidingback into another recession by Q2-19. 


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Looking Forward


Apr-19 Trade Balance – June 18

Q1-19 GDP  - June 27th



Q1-19 GDP - June 19th

PPI YOY– June 19th



May-19 (CPI) Inflation - June 29th



Policy Rate Decision –June 18th



May-19 (CPI) Inflation - June 17th



Q1-19 GDP - June 12th-22nd



Policy Rate Decision - June 11th-21st



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