SSA Output Growth in 2020: Overall momentum to remain soft


Friday, January 10, 2020 / 10:50 AM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: FDC


Recently, the World Bank published a forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economic growth to rise from 2.4% in 2019 to 2.9% in 2020. This was predicated on improving investor confidence in some large economies, a strengthening cyclical recovery among industrial commodity exporters along with a pickup in oil production, and robust growth among agricultural commodity exporters.


For us, we expect growth in South Africa to remain weak, as cases of load shedding or blackouts continue to drag industrial growth. Also, we expect growth to remain tepid in Nigeria and Angola as both economies remain exposed to the vagaries of the oil market. Election uncertainties may dampen fresh foreign investment in seven countries (Ghana, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Togo) scheduled to hold Presidential elections in 2020.


Nonetheless, we expect growth in the smaller economies to continue to support the region's growth. Specifically, we project that economic activity in Rwanda will remain supported by export growth (resulting from the Made in Rwanda policy) and continued public investments.  Also, we opine that the recent removal of interest rate caps, which have constrained credit supply in Kenya for years, should spur new lending to private sector and impact overall growth positively.


Top African Stories

  • World Bank cuts Ethiopia GDP forecast to 6.3% for 2020 fiscal year: The World Bank has cut Ethiopia's economic growth forecast to 6.3% for the 2020 fiscal year, down from an earlier estimate of 9.0%, citing the growing debt burden of state-owned firms and a worsening security situation. Read more

  • France's Orange considering IPO of Middle East, Africa operations: French telecoms group Orange is considering a possible stock market flotation of its combined Middle East and Africa operations. Read more

  • Kenya's KCB Group injects 5 bln shillings into NBK after acquisition: Kenya's biggest lender by assets, KCB Group, has injected 5.0bn shillings ($49.31mn) into National Bank of Kenya (NBK), which it acquired last year. Read more

  • Ivory Coast tax collection up 5% in 2019: Ivory Coast collected 2.25 trillion CFA franc ($3.86 billion) in taxes in 2019, up 4.7% over the previous year, and expects to collect 2.72 trillion CFA francs in 2020. Read more

  • South Africa's Absa PMI declines in December after power cuts: South Africa's seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell deeper into a contraction in December, following a slump in new sales orders and business activity due to power cuts, the survey showed on Wednesday. Read more

  • Russia's VTB sues Mozambique over loan in $2 bln debt scandal: Russian bank VTB is suing a Mozambique state-owned company over $535 million it extended as part a series of loans now at the centre of a $2 billion debt scandal. Read More


Looking Forward



Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 16th

Dec-19 Net Reserves - January 23rd



Monetary Policy Decision - January 27th

Dec-19 M2 Money Supply - January 27th



Monetary Policy Decision - January 27th

Jan-19 Inflation Rate - January 31st  

Morocco Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 22nd



Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 18th

Monetary Policy Decision - January 22nd

Dec-19 Private Sector Credit- January 29th


South Africa

Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 16th

Dec-19 Private Sector Credit - January 16th

Dec-19 Trade Balance - January 31st



Dec-19 Inflation Rate - February 15th


Visit African Markets in Proshare MARKETS

 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Related News

1.        Kenya Lending Rate Cap Weighs on Bank Earnings and Loan Growth

2.       Nigeria-South Africa; Trade Not Xenophobia, A Handshake Across the Sub-Sahara

3.       Annual GDP Growth Falling in Virtually All Large Economies

4.       Zambia's Inflation Rate: A Justifiable Outcry For Policy Intervention

5.       Global Economy Continues to Walk on Eggshells, Sentiments Remain Tepid

6.       UK Politics to Remain Volatile; No-Deal Risk Rises

7.        Sub-Sahara African Currencies Outlook in H2-19: mirror H1-19?

8.       Fed Will Only Cut Rates Once in 2019 - Fitch

9.       Frontier Economies See Lower Interest Rates

10.   In the Footsteps of Nigeria, South Africa Reappoints Apex Bank Governor

11.     Bank of England Publishes July 2019 Financial Stability Report

12.    Turkey Ousts Central Bank Chief Who Drew Ire for Holding Rates

13.    Is the West Africa Single Currency Ambition Feasible?

14.    The Sub-Saharan Africa Region

15.    Kenya joins the Group of Oil Producing Countries in Africa

16.    Moody's Downgrades the Democratic Republic of Congo's Rating to Caa1

17.    Remarks By President Donald Tusk After The Euro Summit Meeting On 21 June 2019

18.   South Africa's Q1-19 GDP Result: On the Way to Another Recession?

19.    Togo Gets S and P's 'B and B' Rating: To Join The Eurobond Bandwagon?

20.  South Africa's Rand Continues To Tumble On Central Bank Worries


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News