Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 280122

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Friday, January 28, 2021/ 02:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: mnbb, iStock


Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded its first meeting for 2022 (on 25th of Jan-2022), a unanimous decision to retain all policy tools was reached. Thus, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) were retained at 11.5%, 27.5% and 30.0% respectively, with Asymmetric corridor remaining at +100/-700bp around the MPR.
  • The Nigerian Labour Congress called off pre-scheduled nation-wide protest after the Federal Government through the Minister of Finance declared the suspension of the planned petrol subsidy removal till further notice. As a result, the FG plans to approach lawmakers for the amendment of the 2022 budget in a bid to accommodate petrol subsidy within the stipulated delay period.
  • The Federal Government approved N3.0trn ($7.2billion) following the request of Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to the Federal Executive Council (FEC), as cost of maintaining fuel subsidy in 2022, which represents a whopping 17.5% of 2022 FG spending plan.
  • Furthermore, the World Bank shunned the decision of the Nigeria Government to delay subsidy removal by 18months.

Ghana

  • According to data from recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Producer Price Inflation declined for Dec-2021 to 12.8% from 13.6% in Nov-2021, down by 80bps.
  • The Federal Government of Ghana in a bid to boost Ghana's oil revenue, expressed its commitment by planning to export 183.0kbpd crude, the highest for any month since Jul-2021.


Francophone West Africa

Ivory Coast

  • According to Bloomberg, the government of Ivory Coast announced the digitalization of the tax audit system, to improve tax compliance for private sector companies, to take effect from Feb-2022, while that of personal and real property tax administration is planned to kick off Mar-2022.
  • The Prime Minister Patrick Achi, in a communique revealed government's plans to earmark a total of $55.0m to improve job creation in the country, as part of already planned government spending programme of XOF3.2tn aimed toward improving living conditions in the country.


East Africa

Kenya

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya after its 1st meeting in 2022 unanimously voted to maintain benchmark lending rate at 7.0%.
  • Furthermore, the committee projects the service and agricultural sector as key drivers of Kenya's economic growth in 2022 amid consistent performance of select sectors.
  • The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) projects Kenya's economic growth to reach 5.9% in 2022 on the back of projected improved performance in the agricultural sector to a record 6.3% in 2022.
  • The African Development Bank Group (AFDB) banned Kenya-based CP Power East Africa Limited and its part-owner Dawwit Wondwossen from its project after alleged fraudulent engagements with Ugandan counterparts.

 

Uganda

  • The Government of Uganda sold UGX300.0bn ($85.2m) of bonds due Nov. 8, 2035, as Investors displayed positive sentiment towards bond offer with bid-to-cover ratio printing at 2.2x. Notably, 16.3% of bond offerings were sold at a price of UGX113.8, with yield at 14.4% to be settled 28-Jan.
  • The World Bank projects a 4.0% economic growth for Uganda in 2022 from 3.5% in FY-2020 and c.5.5% in 2023.


Tanzania

  • The Centenary Rural Development Bank (CRDB) in a bid to make significant contribution in the economic development of Tanzania (particularly in the Agricultural sector), slashed its lending rates to farmers and salaried workers from 20.0% to 9.0%.
  • The Government of Tanzania and Burundi penned down an agreement to the tune of $900.0m for the commencement of railway project, to connect neighbouring East African nations.


Rwanda

  • In the current fiscal year 2021/2022, the Rwandan government has opted against providing seed importation subsidy as the country has achieved self-sufficiency in maize, soybean, and wheat seeds.
  • The government previously imported 3,500MT of Maize, spending in excess of Rwf6.0bn annually. However, according to the Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), Rwanda currently produces 8,875MT and thus could start exporting different varieties of maize seeds to Central African Republic (CAR), and DR Congo.


Southern Africa

South Africa

  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will be meeting to decide its policy rate direction and economists surveyed by Bloomberg project a 25bps - 50bps rate hike. Nevertheless, currency volatility is expected to remain rife.
  • In capital market related news, the 10-year generic rand bond yield rose 7bps to 9.86% as the FTSE/JSE Africa ASI fell 1.85% to 72,432.50 yesterday (Thursday). This suggests sustained selloffs on emerging market assets as policy normalization in advanced economies take centre stage.
  • South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) (the largest coal export terminal in Africa) recorded a total coal export of 58.7m tons in FY-2021, down by 16.4% from 70.2m tons FY-2020. This notably represents the 4th consecutive decline in annual shipments on the back of cable theft.

  • The World Bank approved the South African Government's request for $700.0m as support to offset the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Angola  

  • Angola plans to reduce oil exports in March to 1.05mbpd, the lowest level since Nov-2021 according to a final loading schedule seen by Bloomberg. The March plan includes 34 cargoes carrying a combined volume of 32.65mbpd.
  • In the final statement from the Angolan Cabinet Council Economic Commission (CCEC) meeting, officials announced that the country would gradually extinguish the rights of importing products from states that are part of the agreement related to the AfCFTA.
  • The Economic Commission of the Council of Ministers approved on Tuesday (Jan 25th) the Annual indebtedness plan 2022, valued at Kz6.88bn to finance the General State Budget (OGE). 56.0% of this amount will be mobilized in foreign markets. The country's current public debt is valued at UD$62.5bn.

 

Namibia

  • Shell has made a significant oil and gas discovery at an offshore Namibian well. The well discoveries so far show at least two reservoirs. Drilling results indicate one layer at least 60 meters deep of hydrocarbons, holding about 250 - 300mboe.
  • Shell holds a 45.0% stake in the offshore Petroleum Exploration License 39 (PEL 39) with a 45.0% interest held by Qatar Petroleum and a 10.0% held by the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Nancor), where the discovery was made. If successful, it will be the Southern African nation's first deep water well. The discovery is reportedly worth an estimated US$29.0bn at current average of US$88.0/bbl.


Zambia

  • Zambia's trade surplus narrowed to ZMW6.6bn in December from ZMW7.2bn in Nov-2021, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZAMSTATS).
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 15.1% y/y in Jan-2022 versus 16.4% in Dec-2021, according to the ZAMSTATS. Inflation decelerated to a 2-year low, giving the Central Bank room to hold interest rates at its next MPC announcement on Feb. 16.
  • The Bank of Zambia's target price growth range lies at 6.0% - 8.0%. Removal of fuel subsidies, an anticipated 13% increase in power tariffs in March and Zambian Kwacha depreciation to the US Dollar will likely place upward pressure on prices in coming months.
  • According to the Ministry of Finance, Zambia and its creditors are finalizing a debt restructuring which will result in access to a US$1.4bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package by Jun-2022. The country is working towards restructuring its total public debt which stands at US$27.0bn, equivalent to around 115.0% of GDP, according to 2019 World Bank figures.

 

 

Zimbabwe

  • Zimbabwe's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 60.6% y/y in Jan-2022 after closing 2021 at 60.7%, shedding 13bps, according to Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT). The CPI rose 5.3% m/m in Jan-2022 versus 5.8% in Dec-2021.
  • Following negotiations, the National Employment Council (NEC) has agreed on a 32.2% increase in minimum wage for the agricultural industry. In the newly agreed wages, effective from Jan-2022, the lowest cadre, grade A1, will now pocket ZWL$8,550 up from ZWL$6,469, whereas the highest grade C2 will pocket ZWL$17,099 up from ZWL$12,937. (The sector accounts for 17.0% of the country's output, and 40.0% of total export earnings).

Central Africa

DR Congo

  • Cameroon plans to offer FCFA 350.0bn (US$ 595.2m) of debt in 2022. The proceeds are intended primarily to fund the 2022 budget, according to a presidential decree. Cameroon targets total spending of FCFA 5,752bn (US$ 9.8bn) in 2022.
  • Cameroon plans to reduce exports of Kole crude to 31.0kbpd in Mar-2022 from 68.0kbpd in Feb-2022, according to loading schedules seen by Bloomberg. On the other hand, Lokele grade exports will be little changed at 21.0kbpd for Mar-2022, versus 23.0kbpd in Feb-2022.

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