Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 191121

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Friday, November 19, 2021/ 03:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: Talent2Africa

 

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the headline inflation rate for Oct-2021 came in well below expectations at 16.0% y/y, 64bps lower than the Sep-2021 print (16.6%), implying a faster-than-anticipated deceleration in the rate of change in prices.
  • According to the NBS, real GDP grew by 4.0% y/y in Q3-2021, higher than the -3.6% growth rate recorded in Q3-2020 by 7.7% and lower than 5.0% recorded in Q2-2021 by 0.9%. The economy expanded 11.1% q/q, indicative of a continuous recovery.
  • The Federal Government began the distribution of four million meters nationwide, as the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) communicated plans to increase power tariffs in Dec-2021, to reflect the current changes in macroeconomic indices, generation capacity and capex requirements.
  • A statement from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) disclosed a contract agreement of $1.0bn between with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Ltd and Afreximbank, to facilitate the financing of crude oil exploration in Nigeria.


Ghana

  • The Minister of Finance, Ken Ofori-Atta, presented the 2022 budget and economic policy of the Government to the Parliament, which is in line with Ghana's constitutional provision.
  • Furthermore, he disclosed in a statement the primary focus of the budget; expanding on the economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as creating a climate-friendly entrepreneurial environment to address unemployment and import substitution.


Francophone West Africa

Senegal

  • The Senegalese parliament approved a second supplementary budget for the 2021 fiscal year to account for $450.0m in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • The Government of Senegal set energy targets which includes increasing production of oil to 100,000 barrels per day by 2022, increasing hydropower capacity to 200.0GWh, and achieving universal access to electricity by 2025.


Ivory Coast

  • Ivory Coast recorded 11.7% y/y increase in total arrivals of cocoa in the past week from 533,952(2020) tons to 596,538 tons (2021), with Olam International and Cargil among biggest buyers at 85,690 tons and 88,261 tons respectively.

East Africa

Kenya

  • The Kenyan government has announced plans to offer a third economic stimulus package worth KSh26.2b, in a bid to support the recovery of key sectors affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The fresh stimulus package targets key manufacturing and service sectors in strategic areas, including agriculture, health, education, infrastructure and energy.
  • Kenya will pay petroleum product marketers billions through a fuel subsidy to keep pump prices unchanged and ease public tensions over rising costs.
  • Kenya's Treasury signaled the intention to re-introduce its subsidy program for cooking gas (LPG), with the inclusion of plans to distribute 300,000 6kg LPG cylinders to low-income households in the next 3 years in the 2022 draft budget.


Tanzania

  • According to Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the Tanzanian economy grew by 4.7% y/y in H1-2021, compared to 4.9% y/y in H1-2020.
  • The Monetary Policy Committee of BoT held the benchmark policy rate at 5.0% at its Nov-2021 meeting.
  • The IMF approved disbursement of $372.4m in emergency financial assistance under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to support the country's Covid-19 response.
  • Egyptian multinational company firm, Elsewedy Electric is planning to invest $200.0m in the first phase of the Kigamboni Industrial Park in Tanzania.


Ethiopia

  • According to the Central Statistics Agency, Ethiopia's inflation rate reduced slightly in Oct-2021 to 34.2% y/y from 34.8% in Sep-2021. Food inflation increased by 40.7% y/y in Oct-2021.
  • The Ministry of Trade and Regional Relations has reduced the number of qualifications required to certify a business license from 52 to 10 in a bid to improve the ease of doing business and trade.


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Southern Africa

South Africa

  • According to Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), headline inflation rate printed at 5.0% y/y in Oct-2021, unchanged from Sep-2021. On a m/m basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.2%.
  • Similarly, StatsSA revealed that seasonally adjusted manufacturing output rose by 1.3% y/y in Sep-2021 compared to 1.9% y/y expansion in Aug-2021.
  • In addition, retail trade sales grew by 2.1% y/y in Sep-2021on the back of growth in textiles, clothing footwear, and pharmaceutical and medical goods.
  • On the flip side, mining production output decreased by 3.4% y/y in Sep-2021, the first annual contraction since Feb-2021. This decrease is largely attributable to a reduction in output of coal, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and gold.


Angola 

  • According to the Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Angola's annual inflation climbed for the seventh consecutive month to 26.9% in Oct-2021, the highest since Jul-2017.
  • According to the Minister of Finance, Angola is preparing its borrowing plan for next year, which includes plans to issue Eurobonds. Although the government is still evaluating the feasibility of tapping the international debt markets before the close of FY-2021


Namibia

New vehicle sales climbed to 27.7% y/y in Oct-2021 from -40.9% y/y in Oct-2020. However, vehicle sales slowed by 6.9% m/m.


Zambia

The European Union has awarded grants to ten agro-processing companies to expand their business portfolio under the 26.0m Euros Enterprise Zambia Challenge Fund (EZCF). The companies have been funded to a tune of 7.5m Euros to promote value addition in the agriculture sector.

The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) is projecting to pen business agreements worth $20.0m with enterprises at the ongoing Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) in Durban, South Africa


Zimbabwe

  • The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development has reduced the levy on fuel imports by 34.0%-63.0% per litre, in a bid to prevent further price increases.
  • Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC) has signed a facility with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to settle legacy debts and pay for prepaid meters.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its growth estimate for the Zimbabwean economy for 2021 to 6.0% from 5.1%, citing increased productive investment.


Central Africa (CEMAC & Congo DRC)


Cameroon

  • The government of Cameroon cut levies on all imports brought through the sea by 80.0% until Feb-2022 amidst complaints about exorbitant levies.

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