Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 081021

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Friday, October 08, 2021/ 12:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: Umaizi

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • The President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, is expected to present the budget estimates for the 2022 fiscal year to a joint session of the National Assembly on Thursday. He disclosed that he sought to make changes in the recently passed Medium Term Expenditure Framework/Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).
  • According to the Debt Management Office, Nigeria spent N1.5tn on debt servicing payments in H1-2021. In Q1-2021, the county spent N1.0tn on both domestic and external debt servicing, while a total of N444.5bn was spent in Q2-2021.
  • The World Bank has approved $11.5bn in lending to Western and Central African countries (Nigeria inclusive) for 98 operations, including $500.0m in IBRD commitments and $11.0bn in IDA commitments. The World Bank has projected that the Nigerian economy will grow by 2.4% in 2021. This is a revised figure from the bank's earlier projection of 1.8% in Jan-2021. The projected growth is expected to be driven by the service sector.
  • According to the data released by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), the value of e-payment transactions in Nigeria rose by 6.4% to N24.1tn in Sep-2021 from N22.6tn in Aug-202.


Ghana

  • Ghana's GDP grew by 3.9% y/y in Q2-2021, in real terms. This compares favourably to the 3.1% y/y growth recorded in Q1-2021, and the 5.7% y/y contraction recorded in Q2-2020. Growth was driven by the non-oil sector (+5.2% y/y) as the oil sector contracted by 10.8% y/y.
  • The Vice President of the United States of America, Kamala Harris, has assured the President of the Republic of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, that the United States will soon donate some 1.3 million Pfizer vaccines to Ghana.
  • Ghana's House of Parliament will resume sittings on Tue. Oct. 26th, 2021, after several weeks of being on recess. The 2022 budget is also expected to be read during the sitting on Nov. 15, 2021, by the Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta.


Francophone West Africa

Senegal

  • Senegal's economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2022 and the budget is expected to be 5.1 trillion CFA francs. However, the Fiscal deficit for 2022 is expected at 4.8% compared with 5.4%.
  • In 2021 due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Senegal aims to maintain a fiscal deficit of 3% from 2024.


Ivory

  • According to a statement released by the government, Ivory Coast's oil production dropped by 16.5% y/y to 4.4m barrels in H1-2021 due to depletion of operating wells and shutdown of operations.

 

East Africa

Kenya

  • Guaranty Trust Bank Kenya has secured a $15.0m (Sh1.6bn) loan from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for onward lending to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs). The loan is part of the IFC's COVID-19 crisis response program, which funds financial institutions in emerging markets.
  • Kenya is aiming to cut electricity bills by c.33.0% starting in Dec-2021 in order to boost demand and preserve Kenya Power, the country's beleaguered utility company, from collapse.


Ethiopia

  • Ethiopia's annual inflation rate increased for a fifth consecutive month to 34.8% in Sep-2021, its highest level since Feb-2012.
  • The government has said it will focus on reducing inflation and stabilizing the country's macroeconomic environment.

Tanzania

  • Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan on Tuesday ordered a reduction of taxes imposed on fuel totalling Tsh102.0bn ($44.2m) annually.
  • Airtel Tanzania has partnered with Tanzania Rural and Urban Roads Agency (TARURA) to enable motorists to pay parking fees via Airtel Money

Uganda

  • MTN Uganda has announced plans to offer one-fifth of its stock to East African investors in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Ugandan bourse.
  • According to Uganda's Capital Markets Authority (CMA), MTN's listing is expected to double the size of the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE).


Southern Africa

South Africa

  • According to South African Revenue Service (SARS), South Africa's trade balance rose to R42.4bn in Aug-2021 as exports, driven by commodity prices, continue to outshine imports. Exports rose by 9.7% m/m to R158.9bn while imports rose by 8.0% m/m to R8.68bn over the same period. Imports remain low due to sluggish local demand.
  • The Absa Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) declined to 56.8 points in Sep-2021 from 57.9 points in Aug-2021. The business activity index shed 4.7 points to 53.8 points while new sales orders fell to 59.2 points from 60.9 points in the previous month.
  • According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), the country's new-vehicle sales increased for the second straight month in Sep-2021. On an annual basis, total units sold were 15.8% higher compared to the same period last year. On a monthly basis, new vehicle sales increased by 4.0% m/m in Sep-2021 to reach 43,130 units from 29.5% in Aug-2021.
  • The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) declared its intention to embark on an indefinite strike. As a result, thousands of workers in South Africa's steel industry stopped work on October 5 in support of the call for industrial action.


Angola

In a statement released by the Minister of Economy and Planning, Mario Caetano Joao, the Angolan government forecasts the economy will expand 2.4% in 2022 compared to 0.2% growth this year.

Also, the oil sector is expected to expand 2.4% while the non-sector is forecasted to grow by 3.1% boosted by agriculture and commerce.


Namibia

  • According to the Bank of Namibia, the country's current account deficit narrowed N$3.1bn in Q2-2021 from N$3.8bn in Q1-2021. Namibia's goods trade deficit narrowed to N$6.3bn in the quarter under review from a deficit of N$3.8bn in Q1-2021. 
  • According to the Namibian Statistics Agency, China regained its spot at the top as the country's largest exports for the month of Aug-2021. China's market share of Namibia's export stood at 29.6% ahead of South Africa's 17.9% of total export. The composition of the export basket mainly comprised of copper, precious stones (diamonds), non-monetary gold, uranium ores and concentrates of base metals.

 

Zambia  

  • The government of Zambia announced in a statement that the country owed $5.8bn to Chinese creditors in H1-2021. Notably, $4.3bn is owed by the central government, $1.3bn by state-owned enterprises via facilities guaranteed by the government and $140.0m via facilities not guaranteed by the government.

Zimbabwe

  • According to Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSAT), headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 51.5% y/y in Sep-2021, 1.3 points higher than the 50.2% y/y recorded in the previous month. On a monthly basis, inflation rose slightly by 0.6% to 4.7% from 4.1% in Aug-2021.
  • Despite exogenous global inflation factors, Zimbabwe's central bank has projected inflationary pressure in the country to remain subdued in the short to medium term due to a better agricultural season. It expects annual inflation to close in the year 2021 at 35.0%.

Central Africa

Cameroon

  • The African Development Bank (AfDB) has threatened to pull out XAF188.0bn worth of funding for major roads in Cameroon.


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