Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 060821

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Friday, August 06, 2021/ 5:15 PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: FT

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • The Federal Executive Council (FEC) confirmed the issuers for the planned Eurobond issuance after the Debt Management Office (DMO) had forwarded the list. Following the approval, the FG is expected to raise $6.2bn (N2.3tn) in Eurobonds within the next two to three months.
  • Nigeria has announced its exit from the Maritime Organisation for West and Central Africa (MOWCA) after contributing over $5.0m in form of support to the body. This is due to the disregard for the rules of procedure regarding the eligibility of candidates nominated for the position of the Secretary-General of MOWCA.
  • The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has stated its plans to outline policies to guide International Oil companies who wish to divest from joint ventures or the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This comes after the Petroleum Industry bill was passed last month in the senate.
  • The board of governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to US$650.0bn to boost global liquidity. Nigeria is expected to benefit from the new allocation should the government decide to explore additional multilateral finance considering they are cheaper to issuing Eurobonds. We do not expect this to impact possible issuance of Eurobonds later this year.



Ghana

  • According to IHS Markit, Ghana's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the month of July fell to 49.7 compared to 51.0 in June.
  • In the past week, the Central Bank of Ghana sold $127.0m (GH cedis 756.1m) of treasury bills due August 18. The bills were sold at a price of GH cedis 99.5 and have a stop rate of 13.5%.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting inflation rate to reach 9.6% by the end of the year before returning to the Bank of Ghana's target of 8.0%.


Liberia

  • In the past week, The Ministry of Health began the administration of the Johnson and Johnson vaccines at several hospitals and centres across the country. The first batch of the single shot of the vaccines totaling 302,400 doses was donated by the US government as part of the administration's global efforts to fight the covid pandemic.
  • The country is expected to vaccinate 10.0% of its population by September.

Francophone West Africa

Ivory Coast

  • UK Export Finance (UKEF) has embarked and a 326.0m Euros project that will see the design, construction and equipping of six hospitals in Ivory Coast as well as post-completion training and technical support. The UKEF's largest loan in francophone Africa till date is expected to provide fully equipped modern healthcare services for more than a million people and should be completed by 2024.
  • The Mines and Energy Minister announced that Ivory Coast is in talks to build a 200MW liquefied natural gas-powered power plant. This follows after a series of major power outages rocked the country earlier in the year

Senegal

  • The World Bank announced a $470.0m investment to accelerate the Lome-Ouagadougou-Niamey 1,065km road corridor. The corridor connects the three capitals and is a strategically important trade route.

East Africa

Kenya

  • According to IHS Markit, Kenya's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released for the month of July, the headline index fell for the second straight month from 51.0 in June to 50.6 in July, indicating tottering momentum in the country's economic recovery particularly in the private sector.
  • Kenya's treasury sees GDP growth above 6.0% in medium term as they seek to reduce expenditure to 22.0% of GDP and boost revenue to 18.5% of the GDP.
  • Kenya has withdrawn its request to China to extend debt repayment beyond June to December in the wake of opposition from Chinese lenders that recently froze disbursement to local projects.
  • Kenya plans to sell $92.0m (Sh10.0bn) worth of bills due Aug-2022 in an auction on the 12th of Aug.

Uganda

  • According to IHS Markit, Uganda's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped further in July to 34.6 from 34.9 recorded in June and 56.6 registered in May. This signaled deterioration of the country's business conditions due to continued covid-19 lockdown measures.
  • The government of Uganda has lifted some covid-19 restrictions following 42 days in strict lockdown. The lockdown on schools remains intact, until some essential workers (teachers, health, and security personnel) over 45 years old are vaccinated. Businesses and banks have started adjusting their opening hours to this new development.
  • According to Uganda Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation edged higher to 2.1% y/y in July from 2.0% in June, as an increase in non-core inflation offset a slowdown in core inflation. Non-core inflation was driven higher by an uptick in food and energy price inflation.

Tanzania

  • Tanzania Commercial Bank (TCB) plans to expand its market outreach by recruiting more banking agents with the short-term target of increasing their numbers to 10,000. Currently, the TCB has 3,500 agents across the country, who are decisive factors in driving the banks' financial inclusion agenda
  • The National Bank of Commerce (NBC) and the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) have inked a deal designed to enable farmers who are members of cooperative societies to access health insurance.
  • Tanzania has kicked off its COVID-19 vaccination campaign after receiving the first delivery of around 1 million doses, a donation of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine from the United States Government through COVAX

Rwanda

  • Rwanda has raised $620.0m from investors as it sold Eurobonds for only the second time, making it the latest African nation to take advantage of recent conditions in the Eurobond markets. The sale of new 10-year debt drew more than $1.6bn of orders.
  • The Rwandan Finance ministry disclosed that the eventual yield on the bond would be 5.5%. Proceeds of the raise would be used to pay-off its existing Eurobond which matures in May-2023, while the remainder would be used to fund its economic recovery program.
  • According to Rwanda's National Institute of Statistics, the trade deficit for the month of June narrowed by 12.3% m/m as imports recorded a 0.1% m/m decline, while exports expanded by 22.6% m/m to reach $143.2m.

Southern Africa

South Africa

  • According to statistics from the National Association of Automobiles Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), new vehicles and vehicle exports sales declined by 13.6% m/m July pushing total sales down to 32,949.0 units. This decline is attributed to the third wave of the covid-19 pandemic and general unrest in the nation.
  • South Africa's Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 43.4 points in July compared to 57.4 points recorded in June. The business activity index fell to 26.6 points in July from 56.2 points in June. New sales orders decreased to 31.9 points in July from 57.3 points in the previous month.
  • The South African Special Risks Insurance Association (SASRIA) has disclosed that It will make R15.0bn available to support damages related to the recent violent unrest. However, claims for damages may exceed R15.0bn and the government may have to come in with R4.0bn relief package.
  • According to data from the South African Revenue Service (SARS), June's trade surplus expanded to R57.0bn from about R54.0bn recorded in May. Exports managed to increase by 2.0% m/m to R166.5bn, while imports decreased slightly to R108.8bn.
  • The Treasury and the South African Revenue Service (SARS) have published proposals to restrict assessed losses for businesses, which could help lower the corporate income tax rate from 28.0% to 27.0%.

Namibia

  • According to the recent approval of N$9.4tn worth of special drawing rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for fund members, it was disclosed that Namibia can still secure more loans from the organization.

Zambia

  • The Lusaka South Multi-Facility Economic Zone (LSMFEZ) has recorded a total investment of $76.7m by the end of Q2-2021.
  • China intends to establish and operate a small-scale coal mine in Sinazongwe district of Zambia, at a cost of $1.0m.

Zimbabwe

  • Zimbabwe's treasury will clear a backlog of foreign currency allocations owed from central bank-run auctions in the next 45 days, with an estimate of around $200.0m outstanding. The central bank had introduced weekly foreign currency auctions last year to improve access to dollars.
  • China Exim Bank has deployed $37.5m to fund the rehabilitation and expansion of Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport (RGMIA) This will give the airport capacity to handle bigger passenger and cargo volumes.

Angola

  • According to data from the Ministry of Economy and Planning, exports under the program of support for Production, Export Diversification, and Import Substitution (PRODESI) totaled $24.0m for H1-2021. Among the main products exported were cement worth $11.8m, beer worth $5.2m and packaging and glass bottles worth $2.5m.
  • Angola and Turkey have agreed to boost their trade balance from its current value of $176.0m to $500.0m. This will pave the way for Turkish investors to visit and make investments in Angola with more confidence, and this also applies to Angolan investors in Turkey.

Central Africa

Cameroon

  • Ministers in the CEMAC region and the DR Congo have agreed to push the effective date on the ban of the importation of timber export to Jan - 2023, the ban has been initially set to kick in by Jan-2022.
  • The deal for a ban on timber imports was extended for a year as the CEMAC plans to establish a transitional period. The transitional period has been instated to prepare forest operators for the change and carry out required studies and mature the wood processing investment projects selected during the first phase of the raw timber export ban process
  • Societe Internationale du Ciment (SIC), a division of Atlantic Group, is currently taking the final steps for the construction of its over XAF39 bn cement factory in the Kribi deep seaport's industrial area

Gabon

  • According to Bloomberg, Gabon plans to lift Rabi Blend exports to 63,000 b/d in September. The highest levels since June


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