SSA Output Growth in 2020: Overall momentum to remain soft

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Friday, January 10, 2020 / 10:50 AM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: FDC

 

Recently, the World Bank published a forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economic growth to rise from 2.4% in 2019 to 2.9% in 2020. This was predicated on improving investor confidence in some large economies, a strengthening cyclical recovery among industrial commodity exporters along with a pickup in oil production, and robust growth among agricultural commodity exporters.

 

For us, we expect growth in South Africa to remain weak, as cases of load shedding or blackouts continue to drag industrial growth. Also, we expect growth to remain tepid in Nigeria and Angola as both economies remain exposed to the vagaries of the oil market. Election uncertainties may dampen fresh foreign investment in seven countries (Ghana, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Togo) scheduled to hold Presidential elections in 2020.

 

Nonetheless, we expect growth in the smaller economies to continue to support the region's growth. Specifically, we project that economic activity in Rwanda will remain supported by export growth (resulting from the Made in Rwanda policy) and continued public investments.  Also, we opine that the recent removal of interest rate caps, which have constrained credit supply in Kenya for years, should spur new lending to private sector and impact overall growth positively.

 

Top African Stories

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Looking Forward

 

Angola

Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 16th

Dec-19 Net Reserves - January 23rd

 

Ghana 

Monetary Policy Decision - January 27th

Dec-19 M2 Money Supply - January 27th

 

Kenya

Monetary Policy Decision - January 27th

Jan-19 Inflation Rate - January 31st  

Morocco Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 22nd

 

Nigeria

Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 18th

Monetary Policy Decision - January 22nd

Dec-19 Private Sector Credit- January 29th

 

South Africa

Dec-19 Inflation Rate - January 16th

Dec-19 Private Sector Credit - January 16th

Dec-19 Trade Balance - January 31st

 

Senegal

Dec-19 Inflation Rate - February 15th

  

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