April 20, 2012
Morgan Stanley today wouldn't survive a 2008-like financial crisis, hedge fund managers say.
Talk that the European debt crisis will intensify and threaten the global financial sector is growing now that the large Spanish country is in the crosshairs, and of all the U.S. banks most vulnerable to a downturn, Morgan Stanley stands out.
"Whenever there’s trouble in Europe , Morgan seems to fall the most,” Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice-chairman of Ariel Investments, tells CNBC.
"There is a theory that you always pick the next weakest link to go.”
Other fund managers agree.
"First Bear Stearns was weakest then Lehman Brothers was weakest. Now, the conventional wisdom is that if something bad happens the weakest sister would be Morgan Stanley," says Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital.
The bank recently surprised on the upside.
Morgan Stanley's first-quarter revenue hit $8.9 billion from $7.8 billion a year ago, far outpacing $7.6 billion predicted by analysts polled by FactSet, the Associated Press reports.
Earnings per share during the quarter came to 71 cents, outpacing forecasts of 44 cents.
Results excluded the negative impact of a large accounting charge related to a change in the value of the bank's debt.
Revenue from underwriting bond sales rose in the quarter, as high-grade and riskier companies were raising money by selling debt, while fewer are headed to the stock market for financing.
Advisory revenue fell as well, as less companies sought out advice on mergers and acquisitions amid uncertain economic times.
"I don't regard it as a bolt of lightning out of the sky," says Morgan Stanly President James Gorman, the Associated Press adds.
"I'm sure we'll see some ups and some downs over the next several quarters, but it shows evidence that the investments we've made are in the right direction."
Source:http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Morgan-Stanley-Survive-Crisis/2012/04/20/id/436538?=al&promo_code=EB7D-1 © 2012 Moneynews