Great Lake Region: The Economic Impact of Burying the Hatchet

Friday, August 23, 2019   / 03:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: Accord.org.za

In East Africa's great lake region, several months of bad blood between Rwanda and Uganda, seem to have come to an end. This was as Presidents of both countries, alongside other affected countries, finally signed a pact in Luanda, Angola to ease the escalating tensions. Notably, the enmity had impacted neighboring economies - DR Congo and Republic of the Congo - negatively, due to the closure of an important commercial crossing in Feb-19.

According to news report, the two leaders have agreed to protect and respect the rights & freedoms of people residing or transiting through their respective countries. Also, they promised to resume cross-border activities including movement of persons and goods, as soon as possible.

In our opinion, the peace treaty, if holistically followed through by both leaders, is positive for long-term regional growth and provides an additional boost to high-flying Rwanda that recently posted an 8.4% GDP growth for Q1-19. However, we note that the agreement is still fragile in its current state and can be sent south, if one of the leaders is perceived to be unfaithful to the agreement. 

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Looking Forward

Egypt Jun-19

Production Index - August 30th

Jun-19 Trade Balance - August 31st

Kenya

Jul-19 (CPI) Inflation - August  31st

Jul-19 Overseas Remittances - September 4th 

Nigeria

Q2-19 Trade Balance - August 27th 

Q2-19 Current Account - August 28th

Jul-19 Private Sector Credit - August 30th

South Africa

Jul-19 Private Sector Credit - August 30th

Jul-19 Trade Balance - August 30th 

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