A Look into Ghana's 2020 Budget Numbers

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Friday, November 15, 2019   / 6:04 PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: Graphic Online

 

Earlier in the week, Ghanaian Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, on the authority of the President, Nana Akufo-Addo, presented Ghana's 2020 Budget proposal, titled "Consolidating the Gains for Growth, Jobs & Prosperity for all" to the Parliament.

 

Built into the budget is a wider fiscal deficit of GHc18.8bn ($3.4bn), as total revenue (GHc67.1bn; $12.0bn) is estimated to come in lower than total expenditure (GHc85.9bn; $15.4bn) for 2020. According to the budget numbers, non-debt recurrent expenditures remained dominant; Wages & Salaries (30.9%), Interest payments (25.2%) while capital expenditure remained low at 10.8% of total budget spending. On the revenue side, tax is expected to account for 67.1% of total revenue, followed by revenue from oil (13.3%) and other non-tax revenue excluding oil (12.6%).


Additionally, the government plans to fund the deficits by borrowing from domestic (43.6%) and foreign (56.4%) sources. Notably, the finance minister highlighted the country's plan to visit international capital market to raise c. $3.0bn, of which $2.0bn will be used to support the implementation of the 2020 budget and the rest for domestic debt liability management.

 

In all, the deficit of GHc18.9bn is 4.7% of GDP and falls within the 5.0% limit set out in 2018's Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, with the risk of underperforming revenues and election year overspending, this ratio could increase past the legally set cap.

 

 

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Looking Forward

 

Angola

Oct-19 Net Reserves - November 17th

 

Ghana 

Sep-19 M2 Money Supply YoY - November 17th

Nov-19 Policy Rate Decision - November 25th

 

Kenya

Sep-19 Overseas Remittances - November 15th

Nov-19 Policy Rate Decision - November 25th

Nov-19 Consumer Price Index - November 30th  

Senegal Oct-19 Consumer Price Index - November 15th

 

Morocco

Oct-19 Consumer Price Index - November 22nd

Oct-19 Money Supply M3 YoY - November 29th

 

Nigeria

Oct-19 Consumer Price Index - November 18th

Q3-19 GDP Report - November 25th

 

South Africa

Oct-19 Consumer Price Index - November 20th

Oct-19 Private Sector Credit - November 29th

2020 Budget Presentation - November 29th


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