Monday, August 28, 2017 1:15 PM / BMI
The continuity of Museveni's presidency will pose the greatest risk to Uganda's stability in the medium term. Meanwhile, corruption, underemployment and unstable neighbouring countries may also impact social stability and potentially lead to unrest.
We have revised down our oil price forecasts for 2017 and 2018, as OPEC cuts have been slower to take effect than we had anticipated and demand has disappointed in the year to date. We now forecast Brent to average USD54.0 per barrel (/bbl) in 2017 and USD55.0/bbl in 2018, which places us below Bloomberg consensus for both years. Until now, we had held an above consensus view on oil prices. Although we remain bullish on prices in H217, we are less positive towards 2018 and see little room for y-o-y price growth. A key factor capping prices will be the gradual return of cut OPEC and non-OPEC barrels to market.
East & Central Africa Risk Index
BMI's Country Risk Index scores countries on a 0-100 scale, evaluating short-term and long-term political stability, short-term economic outlook, long-term economic potential and operational barriers to doing business.
1. Kenya - Ongoing Drought Will Result In Growth Slowdown In 2017
2. Tanzania - Development Expenditure To Widen After Downturn
3. Uganda - Shilling Set For Long-Term Depreciatory Trend
4. Sub Saharan Africa – Regional Favourites Facing Headwinds
5. Frontier Markets Growth Slowed in 2016 but Trade Now Picking Up
6. FSB Reports To G20 Leaders On Progress In Financial Regulatory Reforms
7. Pressure Builds on Eurozone Banks to Tackle High NPLs
8. Nigeria: Is The Recovery For Real? - LBS EBS – July 2017
9. Project Changes in Mozambique Prompt Construction Forecast Revision
10. Tentative Recovery in Zimbabwe Will Face Destabilizing Headwinds
11. Slow Growth in Egypt Until Structural Adjustment Bears Fruit
12. Egypt – Emergency Powers Will Help Push Through Reforms
13. Algeria – Slow Response to Structural Slowdown
14. Nigeria’s Borrowing Spree…Any Cause for Worry?
15. Economic Associates States Report - July 2017 Edition