Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 250621

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Friday, June 25, 2021/ 03:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: IMF

 

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • The Nigerian insurance industry's assets rose by N401.0bn to N2.0tn as of the end of 2020 from N1.6tn as of the end of 2019, according to statistics from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
  • Furthermore, other statistics showed that as of the end of 2020, policies held by individual Nigerians were 1,034,383, corporate and non-individual policies were 891,128 bringing total policies written to 1,925,511. Meanwhile, insurance penetration during the period under review was a measly 0.7%.
  • Meter Asset Providers (manufacturers of prepaid meters) are demanding an increase in the price of meters following the rise in inflation and foreign exchange rates, among other economic variables.
  • According to the CBN, it is collaborating with the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria to distribute 27,000MT of rice paddies directly to millers nationwide, in a renewed move to address the rising cost of food prices in the Nigerian market.
  • The Chairman of the Mushroom Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria said that the Nigerian mushroom subsector can contribute N1.8tn to the country's revenue base if properly developed by the Federal Government.
  • At June's FGN Bond Auction, a total of N325.8bn was sold i.e., N175.8bn more than the total volume offered (N150.0bn). The 2027s and 2035s dipped by 36bps and 50bps apiece to print at 12.7% and 13.5% respectively, while 2050s, which replaced the 2049s from the preceding month, closed at 13.7%.
  • As expected, investor demand remained strong as the 2027, 2035 and 2050 instruments were oversubscribed by 1.3x, 2.6x and 4.5x, respectively.


Ghana

  • In bid to enforce laws on repatriation of export proceeds, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has announced the involvement of the Criminal Investigations Department (CID). The move will help the bank deal with exporters who flout the Letter of Commitment (LOC) that accompanies exports, guaranteeing export proceeds will be repatriated in compliance with the law.
  • The Agricultural Development Bank (ADB) has restated its commitment to use its expertise and resources to support businesses in the country to expand and create more jobs for the nation's teeming population.
  • Cocoa market regulators in Ghana and Ivory Coast have threatened to expose companies they have accused of undermining the $400 per tonne premium (called the living income differential) aimed at alleviating farmer poverty in the world's two largest cocoa producing nations.
  • Speaking at a press briefing in Accra, the CEO of Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC), Mr. Yofi Grant has announced the country's target to raise $3.0bn in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2021.  


Liberia

  • President George Weah has submitted to the House of Representatives a $55.0m loan financing agreement between the Republic of Liberia and the International Development Association (IDA). The financing agreement would see the IDA extend a $55.0m non-concessional financing to Liberia, to improve production and market access for smallholder farmers and agri-enterprise for selected value chains in project participation in counties.
  • The World Bank and the government of Liberia signed three financing agreements to the tune of $117.0m for the construction of 101.0km of paved roads that will link Saclepea to Tappita to Toe's town of the country and $40.0m for the Second Inclusive Growth Development Policy Operation (IGDPO-2).
  • The Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) has launched a new tax system to improve the current system being used at the institution. The new tax system is inclusive of online registration, online filing, and payment. It will replace the Standard Integrated Government Tax System (SIGTAS) currently being used by the Revenue Authority. The project implementation is expected to span over five years and would cost c.$5.3m. 


Francophone West Africa

Ivory Coast

  • According to the Ivorian Statistics agency, the Ivory Coast inflation rate accelerated to 4.2% y/y from 3.9% y/y in May-2021.
  • Ivory Coast has issued CFA150.0bn ($273.7m) in domestic bonds in an auction running until June 28, a lead manager of the sale at NSIA bank told Reuters on Tuesday.
  • The auction opened on June 15 and includes CFA130.0bn worth of seven-year bonds at a rate of 5.8% and CFA20.0bn of 10-year bonds at 5.9%.


East Africa

Kenya

  • After completing its initial assessments of two agreements approved in Apr-2021, the International Monetary Fund's board approved the immediate release of another $407.0m to Kenya on Wednesday. This comes after the board authorized $2.3bn financing arrangements for Kenya in April.
  • A proposal in the Finance Bill 2021 to remove "fees or commissions" earned by financial institutions on loan from excise duty payments of 20.0% was rejected by the Finance and Planning Committee.
  • Kenya has obtained debt service relief from creditors in the country's Eurobonds and standard gauge railway lender, China Exim Bank, saving Sh16.8bn in interest payments, according to the National Treasury.


Uganda

  • The Ugandan government has announced that nationwide Covid-19 vaccination will resume on next week Monday.
  • Fitch ratings has maintained its B+ rating with a negative outlook for Uganda. Their negative outlook is based on the build-up of government debt and persistent twin deficits.
  • According to the Bank of Uganda (BoU), Uganda's savings rate has decreased from 18.1% in 2019 to 16.3% in 2021.
  • The drop was attributed by the Central Bank to poor external demand, as seen by a 3.9% fall in contribution from net exports and a 6.7% decline in private investments, amid pandemic-related challenges.
  • According to the Bank of Uganda's monthly report, Uganda exported coffee worth $47.1m (Shs167.0bn) in May-2021, down from a record-high $53.5m (Shs189.0bn) in Mar-2021.


Tanzania

  • Tanzania's export income for the 2020/21 season climbed by 20.0% to $137.0m, an 8-year high, according to the Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB). Increased coffee demand spurred by the lockdown and work-from-home environment drove the spike, according to the TCB.
  • Domestic credit to the private sector and the government increased by 10.6% y/y in Q1-2021, compared to 6.5% y/y in Q1-2020, according to the Bank of Tanzania's (BoT) Monthly Economic Report.
  • According to the Central Bank, credit issued to the government through the purchase of government securities increased by 8.7% in the period (Q1-2021), while private sector credit increased by 2.3% (vs. 8.6% in Q1-2020).


Ethiopia

  • On Monday, Ethiopia held its much-anticipated parliamentary elections. According to the electoral board, more than 37.0m of Ethiopia's 110.0m people registered to vote, 46 parties and more than 9,000 candidates (a record number) were involved in the elections. The votes are still being counted.
  • The elections were conducted in an orderly, peaceful, and credible manner," according to the African Union election observer mission.  
  • Ethiopia recorded a lower-than-expected decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows over 2020, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) figures.


Southern Africa

South Africa

  • In the past week, Statistics South Africa reported that South Africa's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 7.4% y/y in May-2021, from 6.7% y/y in Apr-2021. On a m/m basis, Producer prices rose 0.4% m/m.
  • South Africa's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 5.2% y/y in May-2021 from 4.4% in Apr-2021. May's inflation estimate represented a 30-month high.
  • South Africa's Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.8 in May from 56.2 in April.
  • South Africa government will offer R7.5bn worth of bills today (June 25, 2021) across four tenors the 91-day, 182-day, 231-day and 364-day papers.

 

Angola

  • According to the Ministry of Finance website, Angola's oil revenue rose by 39.0% in May to KWH43.7bn
  • According to the Banco Nacional De Angola (BNA), Angola's net reserves fell to $7.9bn in May-2021.
  • Also, in a report by the BNA, remittances from Angolan workers in Portugal rose by 53.6% to €3.5m in Apr-2020, a rise from €2.3bn last year.


Namibia

  • According to the Namibia Statistics Agency, Namibia's GDP fell by 6.5% y/y in Q1-2021 versus a contraction of 5.9% y/y in Q4-2020.
  • Namibia sold N$550.0m ($38.7m) worth of bills. Investor appetite for the bills remained decent as the bills were oversubscribed by 1.6x. Stop rates closed at 5.0%.
  • Lastly, on a sombre note, Namibia's Chief negotiator in its compensation deal with Germany passed at age 88. Recall earlier, Germany had reportedly offered a $1.1bn forgiveness and support package to Namibia following its colonial activities.


Mozambique

The Mozambican government plans to sell a majority stake in the planned $2.4bn Mphanda Nkuwa hydropower dam. The 1,500mw facility is set to be one of the biggest in Southern Africa.


Zambia  

  • According to the Zambia Statistics agency, Zambia's trade surplus narrowed to ZMW6.9bn in May-2021.
  • Zambian inflation accelerated to a near 19-year high in Jun-2021. Inflation rose to 24.6%, from 23.2% in May-2021. Food inflation continues to be the significant driver rising to 31.2% from 28.5%.
  • Also, in the last week, incoming data from Bloomberg showed the Zambian economy grew by 0.7% y/y in Q1-2021, compared with a 2.7% contraction in Q4-2020.
  • The expansion in Zambia's GDP was mainly driven by agriculture which grew by 1.4% in Q1-2021.

 

Central Africa

Cameroon

  • Cameroon commenced a roadshow in the hopes of issuing a euro-denominated bond, keeping with the trend of francophone nations preferring to issue in euros instead of dollars.
  • The sovereign has also announced a tender offer to buy back its 2025 bond at a premium. The note was trading at a price of $117.375 before the tender announcement and the tender price is $118.20.

 

Gabon

Gabon became the first African country to receive results-based payments for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The country received payment worth $17.0m, rewarding reduced emissions in 2016 and 2017, compared to annual emission levels from 2006 to 2015.


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