SSA Foreign Exchange in H2-2020: To Recover to Pre-COVID-19 Level?

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Friday, August 14, 2020/ 03:00PM / United Capital Research / Header Image Credit: Brand Spur

 

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Analysis of SSA foreign exchange condition in H1-2020 showed a broadbased weakness against the US dollar, as the outbreak of COVID-19 triggered sharp capital outflows (especially portfolio investments), exposed the fragilities in each country's external account and negatively impacted economic activities across the region. Notably, the CFA franc was the lone gainer against the dollar in H1-2020, supported by its link to the euro.

 

 Additionally, a critical milestone was achieved in the transformation of the West African CFA franc to eco, in H1-2020. This was as the French Council of Ministers adopted a bill ratifying the end of the CFA franc in the eight francophone countries that form the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). However, no further progress was made on the implementation of the new currency amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking ahead, we expect currency market conditions within the region to improve in H2-2020, as external (commodity demand and price recovery) and domestic (easing economic restrictions) dynamics begin to improve and portfolio investments recover.

 

Also, concessional loans from IMF and World Bank should further support local foreign exchange conditions, adding to respective countries' external reserves and making them more resilient to speculative attacks. However, with lingering uncertainties around the outlook for COVID-19, we do not expect most of the currencies to recover to pre-COVID19 levels. Lastly, we expect the conversation around implementation of the eco to pickup in H2-2020 as countries within the region start to re-open for business.

 

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Looking Forward

 

Angola

Jul-2020 Net Reserves - August 23rd

 

Egypt

Jun-2020 Trade Balance - August 18th

 

Ghana

Jul-2020 Inflation Report - August 12th

 

Kenya

Q2-2020 PPI YoY - August 19th

Jul-2020 Money Supply - August 25th

 

Morocco

Jul-2020 Inflation Report - August 19th

Jul-2020 Money Supply - August 28th

 

Nigeria

Jul-2020 Inflation Report - August 17th

Q2-2020 GDP Report - August 26th

Jul-2020 Private Sector Credit - August 27th

Jul-2020 Money Supply - August 27th

 

South Africa

Jul-2020 Inflation Report - August 26th

Jul-2020 Private Sector Credit - August 31st

Q2-2020 Unemployment Report - August 31st

 

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