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Wednesday,
April 15, 2020 / 12:23 PM / by CFI.co / Header Image Credit: Forbes
Sensing a unique opportunity to take a shortcut to the
global top spot, China is putting in a sustained effort to turn tragedy into
triumph and expand its standing and reach in the wake of the pandemic. The
Chinese government is pretty pleased with its handling of the corona outbreak
and now seeks recognition as a medical superpower and, more importantly,
affirmation that the country's societal model is superior to that of even the
most advanced liberal democracies. However, if President Xi Jinping thinks that
his government now sits at the top of the world, he has - as the saying goes - another thing coming.
Given the absence of US leadership and the unedifying
displays of disunity in Europe, the ambitions of President Jinping are quite
understandable and not at all unreasonable. However impressive its track record
in defeating poverty and disease, the Chinese government lacks the
self-confidence and inner strength necessary to provide any form of global
leadership.
A country that feels the need to cow those less
powerful into submission, cannot take dissent without suffering a bout of
existentialist angst, and promotes alt-truths in order to hide its own
failings, is not one the world can trust.
Last Saturday, The Guardian reported that Beijing has
clamped down on the academic establishment and is taking research papers
offline that paint a slightly different picture from the one broadcast by
officialdom. Preliminary studies published by the China University of
Geosciences in Wuhan on the origins of the corona virus have been deleted from
the institution's website and from a number of peer-reviewed fora used by
academics to compare notes and critically examine the findings of colleagues.
In their attempt to control the narrative and exploit
the pandemic to further the country's own myopic interests, the powers that be
do not tolerate any dissent. Scientific fact cannot be allowed to undermine the
efforts of the state to prove the efficiency of its system in dealing with the
pandemic. Rather than a sign of strength, the People's Republic authoritarian
posturing underscores the rather fragile nature of its government which is
apparently unable to accept even the slightest form of criticism and
instinctively represses anything and anybody not toeing the official line as
drawn by those who know better.
Not only has China vastly underreported the number of
corona dead, the country also flooded the world with shoddily made, and
therefore useless face masks, it now silences scientists as well. If the world
wants an example of how not to deal with a pandemic, it just need look at
China.
Whilst the US government was painfully slow off the
mark thanks to a peculiar president with a penchant for grandstanding,
Washington does not suppress scientific research, has not muzzled the media,
and continues to act within the boundaries of democratically established law.
This perhaps helps explain why most Americans are tolerant of President Trump's
daily shenanigans: the vast majority of people still have a degree of trust in
the state. Personal and collective freedom need not be limited either as most
individuals and businesses know what is expected of them and act accordingly.
This is even more evident in Europe where governments
experience no trouble at all whilst steering their societies in the sensible
direction. Prime ministers and presidents are taking their cue from scientists,
explain decisions in great detail, and keep parliaments in the loop. The press
provides both context and constructive criticism which are widely considered to
be helpful and even essential to the smooth functioning of democratic society.
In order to command obedience, western governments must first earn the trust of
their people. Transparency and accountability are key in liberal democracies.
In The Netherlands, the first stop in the ongoing
debate about the possible usefulness of tracking technology in the fight
against the spread of the virus was the decision to allow people to opt out of
it. The government immediately recognised that forcing the Dutch to install a
monitoring app on their smartphone would only have provoked a great many into
civil disobedience. The second stop involved a decision to allow users of any
future tracking app full control over their personal data.
Another consideration is that the Orwellian monitoring
of citizens in China has probably not contributed in meaningful ways towards
the containment of the virus - or at least not to the extent claimed by the
country's government which has made the suppression of bad numbers into an art
form, especially when 'national honour' is at stake.
Strong empirical evidence gathered in Hubei Province,
ground zero of the pandemic, suggests that China has severely underreported its
death toll. However, it is not known how much of the data was fudged or how
deliberate authorities were in juggling the numbers. Admittedly, the nature of
the infection makes it hard to produce exact figures. Now that independent fact
finding and scientific investigation have been outlawed, the true scale of the
epidemic in China may never come to light.
China's barely disguised schadenfreude at the apparent
inability of liberal democracies to deal with the pandemic effectively is not
only unseemly, but also misplaced. Because the country was slow to admit to the
seriousness of the outbreak, and actively suppressed reports from Wuhan, it
misled the global community by creating a false sense of security. Though the
corona outbreak may not quite be China's 'Chernobyl moment', the country's
claim to the superiority of its illiberal system looks tenuous, if not
downright preposterous, and is unlikely to outlive the pandemic.
On the economic front, China can expect strong
headwinds as the previously unstoppable march of globalisation slows down or
shifts into reverse gear. The pandemic has laid bare the fragility of global
supply chains, the silliness of just-in-time manufacturing processes, and the
dangers of offshoring production. Moreover, the governments now shoveling vast
amounts of emergency cash into their economy will expect to see some kind of
return.
In order to speed up the post-corona recovery, and
rebuild the economic resilience lost to globalisation, European governments are
beginning to look for ways to onshore production, not just of medical supplies
but across the board. Cruder forms of protectionism will be avoided but
shielding domestic markets from predators who take but rarely give, of which
China regrettably constitutes the prime example, is likely to lead the agenda.
Even before the pandemic took hold, Germany, France, and others were already
questioning the wisdom of allowing Chinese competitors near-unfettered access
to their markets and technology.
In a way, China must come to accept that it has
matured as a nation and has joined the ranks of the developed world: it is no
longer a poor country looking for a break as it busily lifts millions out of
poverty. No longer can Beijing explain away its authoritarian demeanour by
stressing the need for political stability as it seeks to accelerate development
and create prosperity. Should the Chinese government really wish to assume a
global leadership role, it must find the self-confidence and courage to set
both the economy and the people free.
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