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Friday, February
28, 2020 /05:43 PM / By Proshare Research / Header
Image Credit: Quartz
The
coronavirus pandemic, which emanated from China, is rapidly spreading to
several other countries and continents. About 50 countries in the world
have reported cases of coronavirus. It has become clear that the virus will
have a negative spill-over effect on major equity markets around the world,
with backlash within the week being the worst since 2008.
Table 1: Recent Global Stock
Market Indexes
S/N |
Markets |
Country |
31-Dec-19 |
27-Feb-20 |
28-Feb-20 |
YTD (%) |
Today (%) |
1 |
Canada |
17098.56 |
17041.92 |
16717.44 |
-2.23% |
-1.90% |
|
2 |
All Share
Index |
Nigeria |
26842.07 |
26808.24 |
26216.46 |
-2.33% |
-2.21% |
3 |
All
Ordinaries |
Australia |
6810 |
6511.5 |
6511.5 |
-4.38% |
0.00% |
4 |
IPC |
Mexico |
43541.02 |
41607.42 |
41607.42 |
-4.44% |
0.00% |
5 |
Nasdaq |
USA |
8972.6 |
8566.48 |
8566.48 |
-4.53% |
0.00% |
6 |
Swiss Market
Index |
Switzerland |
10616.94 |
9816.24 |
9913.61 |
-6.62% |
0.99% |
7 |
SSE Composite
Index (Shanghai) |
China |
3084.69 |
2880.3 |
2880.3 |
-6.63% |
0.00% |
8 |
Taiwan |
12100.48 |
11292.17 |
11292.17 |
-6.68% |
0.00% |
|
9 |
Straits Times
(STI) |
Singapore |
3238.07 |
3011.87 |
3011.08 |
-7.01% |
-0.03% |
10 |
^KLSE |
Malaysia |
1595.83 |
1482.64 |
1482.64 |
-7.09% |
0.00% |
11 |
SSE 180 Index
(Shanghai) |
China |
8972.92 |
8
8323.1 |
8323.11 |
-7.24% |
0.00% |
12 |
Italy |
25890.37 |
24747.22 |
23890.23 |
-7.73% |
-3.46% |
|
13 |
S&P500 |
USA |
3230.78 |
2978.76 |
2978.76 |
-7.80% |
0.00% |
14 |
MerVal |
Argentina |
41671.41 |
38390.84 |
38390.84 |
-7.87% |
0.00% |
15 |
India |
12182.5 |
11633.3 |
11201.75 |
-8.05% |
-3.71% |
|
16 |
Russia |
3050.47 |
2915.84 |
2801.28 |
-8.17% |
-3.93% |
|
17 |
Hang Seng |
Hong Kong |
28499.5 |
26129.93 |
26129.93 |
-8.31% |
0.00% |
18 |
KS11 |
South Korea |
2176.67 |
1987.01 |
1987.01 |
-8.71% |
0.00% |
19 |
Dow Jones
Ind. Avg. |
USA |
28538.44 |
25766.64 |
25766.64 |
-9.71% |
0.00% |
20 |
DAX |
Germany |
13249.01 |
11775.79 |
11934.79 |
-9.92% |
1.35% |
21 |
AEX General |
Netherlands |
604.58 |
533.16 |
540.77 |
-10.55% |
1.43% |
22 |
Nikkei 225 |
Japan |
23656.62 |
21142.96 |
21142.96 |
-10.63% |
0.00% |
23 |
CAC 40 |
France |
5978.06 |
5268.06 |
5336.18 |
-10.74% |
1.29% |
24 |
BEL-20 |
Belgium |
3955.83 |
3459.54 |
3520.14 |
-11.01% |
1.75% |
25 |
Bovespa |
Brazil |
115645.3 |
102983.5 |
102327.66 |
-11.52% |
-0.64% |
26 |
^JKSE |
Indonesia |
6271.11 |
5452.7 |
5452.7 |
-13.05% |
0.00% |
27 |
FTSE 100 |
UK |
7542.44 |
6490.47 |
6553.85 |
-13.11% |
0.98% |
28 |
ATX |
Austria |
3186.94 |
2730.98 |
2768.4 |
-13.13% |
1.37% |
Source: Rediff/Bloomberg/Proshare
The twenty-eight (28) global stock markets reviewed all showed a dip in
their year-to-date performances.
The top five stock markets that recorded the highest dips were Austria's ATX, U.K's FTSE 100,
Indonesia's JKSE
, Brazil's Bovespa and Belgium's BEL-20 which dipped by -13.13%, -13.11%, -13.05%, -11.52% and -11.01% respectively (see Table 1).
The top largest economies in the world have
been greatly hit by the adverse effect of the coronavirus. Large economies such
as U.S, China, South Korea, Japan and Germany have been negatively affected by
this pandemic.
U.S (Dow Jones Ind. Avg) -9.71%
Chinese (SSE 180 Index) -7.24%
South Korea (KS
11) -8.71%
Airline stocks in South
Korea have also recorded a dip in their stocks as there has been an increase in
fears of contagion.
Japan (Nikkei 225) -10.65%
Italy S&P/MIB Index -7.73%
Table 2: African Stock Market
S/N |
Markets |
Country |
31-Dec-19 |
28-Feb-20 |
YTD (%) |
1 |
Egypt |
EGX 70 |
534.47 |
1209.27 |
126.26% |
2 |
Kenya |
FTSE ASEA
PANAFRICAN Index |
1075.14 |
1300.48 |
20.96% |
3 |
Botswana |
DRSI |
1054.79 |
1088.71 |
3.22% |
4 |
Botswana |
DCI |
7494.55 |
7598.72 |
1.39% |
5 |
Morocco |
Casablanca |
12171.9 |
12294.56 |
1.01% |
6 |
Tunisia |
Tunisia BVMT
Index |
7131.71 |
7171.31 |
0.56% |
7 |
Mauritius |
SEMTRI |
8309.75 |
8330.89 |
0.25% |
8 |
Mauritius |
SEMDEX |
2177.09 |
2177.25 |
0.01% |
9 |
Mauritius |
SEM7 |
429.86 |
429.37 |
-0.11% |
10 |
Lusaka |
All-Share
Index |
4264.51 |
4246.75 |
-0.42% |
11 |
Botswana |
LASI |
843.79 |
839.66 |
-0.49% |
12 |
Kenya |
FTSE NSE
Kenya Govt. Bond |
97.5 |
96.89 |
-0.63% |
13 |
Botswana |
FCI |
1562.43 |
1551.35 |
-0.71% |
14 |
Botswana |
FRSI |
777.91 |
772.09 |
-0.75% |
15 |
Tanzania |
Dar es salaam
Stock Exchange All Share Index |
2059.21 |
2036.87 |
-1.08% |
16 |
Ghana |
GSE
Composite Index |
2254.61 |
2180.31 |
-3.30% |
17 |
South Africa |
Industrial 25 |
69349.97 |
66877.32 |
-3.57% |
18 |
Malawi |
Malawi
All Share Index |
30252.2 |
29162.28 |
-3.60% |
19 |
Uganda |
All-Share
Index |
1800.72 |
1724.47 |
-4.23% |
20 |
Egypt |
EGX 100 |
1398.1 |
1311.08 |
-6.22% |
21 |
Egypt |
EGX 30 |
13961.56 |
13008.94 |
-6.82% |
22 |
Kenya |
FTSE NSE
Kenya 15 Index |
221.31 |
204.76 |
-7.48% |
23 |
BRVM |
BRVM-C |
159.24 |
145.47 |
-8.65% |
24 |
South Africa |
JSE Top 40
Tradable Index |
51039.98 |
46471.57 |
-8.95% |
25 |
Kenya |
ALL SHARE
INDEX |
166.41 |
151.49 |
-8.97% |
26 |
Namibian |
NSX Namibia |
1306.3 |
1187.179 |
-9.12% |
27 |
Kenya |
20 SHARE
INDEX |
2654.39 |
2409.53 |
-9.22% |
28 |
BRVM |
BRVM-10 |
149.11 |
135.23 |
-9.31% |
29 |
South Africa |
JSE All Share
Index |
57084.1 |
51704.4 |
-9.42% |
30 |
Kenya |
FTSE NSE
Kenya 25 Index |
229.49 |
207.85 |
-9.43% |
31 |
Egypt |
EGX20 Caped |
16350.32 |
14756.81 |
-9.75% |
32 |
South Africa |
Financial 15 |
15689.42 |
13691.62 |
-12.73% |
33 |
South Africa |
Resource 10 |
49418.41 |
42787.11 |
-13.42% |
34 |
Zimbabwe |
All Share
Index |
766.34 |
479.92 |
-37.38% |
35 |
Rwanda Stock
Exchange |
RSE ASI |
316.66 |
150.41 |
-52.50% |
Source: Reddif/Bloomberg/Proshare
Research
Thirty-five African stock markets
year-to-date performance played
up the mirror images of global equity market patterns.
Among the 35 stock markets examined twenty-seven (27) stock markets were negative(positive), i.e. they dipped while eight (8) stock markets were
positive(green). The stock markets with the highest gain in year-to-date
performance are Egypt's EGX 70, Kenya's FTSE ASEA PANAFRICAN Index, Botswana
DRSI, Botswana DCI and Morocco's Casablanca which recorded gains of +126.26%, +20.96%, +3.22%, +1.39% and +1.01% respectively
while the top African stock markets that recorded losses are Egypt's EGX20
Caped, South Africa's Financial 15, South Africa Reseource10, Zimbabwe's All
Share Index and Rwanda's Stock Exchange all recorded bearish change of -9.75%, -12.73%, -13.42%, -37.38% and -52.5% respectively (see Table 2).
The latest information
reveals that only two African nations,
Algeria and Nigeria, have recorded one case
each of coronavirus. Although the
negative effect caused by coronavirus on the stock markets of some large
economies such as the U.S, China, South
Korea and Japan, the effect of the outbreak is yet to be felt by the majority of African stock markets. Gain and losses in
African stock markets could be instead attributed to the possible uniqueness and peculiarity of their stock
markets and economy.
Table 3: Sector Index W-O-W Performance
Market Performance – Sector Index |
|||
Sectors |
21-Feb-20 |
28-Feb-20 |
WoW Chg |
NSE ASI |
27,388.62 |
26,216.46 |
-4.28% |
NSE-30 |
1,204.42 |
1,148.03 |
-4.68% |
NSE Consumer Goods |
476.30 |
458.03 |
-3.84% |
NSE Banking |
357.65 |
315.50 |
-11.79% |
NSE Insurance |
126.71 |
116.30 |
-8.22% |
NSE Oil and Gas |
239.12 |
234.01 |
-2.14% |
NSE LII |
1,885.76 |
1,866.92 |
-1.00% |
NSE-IND |
1,201.64 |
1,214.60 |
1.08% |
NSE-ASeM |
734.99 |
734.99 |
0.00% |
NSE Pension |
1,028.66 |
983.71 |
-4.37% |
NSE Premium |
2,336.11 |
2,249.86 |
-3.69% |
NSE Main Board |
1,082.66 |
1,029.69 |
-4.89% |
NSECG |
1,023.88 |
934.02 |
-8.78% |
NSEAFRBVI |
977.40 |
866.93 |
-11.30% |
NSEAFRHDYI |
1,461.11 |
1,384.51 |
-5.24% |
NSEMERIGRW |
1,260.42 |
1,191.70 |
-5.45% |
NSEMERIVAL |
1,552.22 |
1,449.91 |
-6.59% |
Dangote Index |
89.75 |
89.75 |
0.00% |
Elumelu Index |
90.29 |
83.19 |
-7.86% |
Source: Reddif/Bloomberg/Proshare
Research
Nigeria recorded its first case of coronavirus
in Lagos on 27th February 2020. The effect of the outbreak in
Nigeria will likely cause increased speculation and anxiety in the stock
market.
The Nigerian stock market extended its downtrend
as Investors Lost N610.64bn week-on-week while the NSEASI Dipped by -4.28% To Close the Week Negative. The sector indices
all ended the week lower except the NSE Industrial Goods Index, which turned
bullish by +1.08% while the NSE ASeM Index closed flat.
The significant losses recorded within the week
dampened overall market performance, which was led by the Banking Index,
NSE-AFR Bank Value Index, NSE CG Index, Insurance Index, which closed at -11.79%, -11.30%, -8.78% and -8.22% respectively. On the flip side, a
gain of +1.08% was recorded in the Industrial Goods
sector, thereby making the index the sole gainer during the week.
The Dangote and Toni indexes both showed weak
performances; the Dangote index closed flat while the Toni index grunted
bearishly at -7.86%, this was precipitated by selloffs
in heavyweights which led to UBA, TRANSCORP and UBCAP ending the week with
large dips in their prices by -9.46%, -5.38% and -3.77% respectively.
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