Speculative tendency drives Black market exchange rate

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Wednesday, April 29, 2015 5:09PM / Research

A review of today’s parallel market activities and oil price behaviour highlights the following:
  •         The value of the Naira remains the same at N223/$1, same value it traded yesterday.
  •         Today’s transactions at the black market are characterized by hoarding of dollars by BDC operators who are keeping their available stock in anticipation of higher Naira/USD exchange rate.
  •         The present Naira/USD differential is not driven by any major movement in volume but by speculative tendencies.
  •         The naira also exchanged against the Pounds sterling at N337/£1 against N332 it traded the previous day.
  •         Official rate remains at N197/$1
  •         Brent crude price was at $65.05 per barrel as at 10.58ET.

 
EXCHANGE RATE
Today, the naira exchanged at N223 to a dollar. The Nigerian currency closed flat to remain at N223/$1. The official Naira/USD exchange rate, however, remains at N197/$1.

The value of the naira has since the initial CBN devaluation traded between the band of N173 and N230 to USD1. The graph below shows in pictorial form the volatility of the naira against the dollar in the black market for the last 3weeks as it compares with the official rate.


Source: Fieldwork

OIL PRICE
Oil price continues to swing up and down in the international oil market following initial heavy decline since the last quarter of 2014. Today, the commodity recorded a marginal gain of 0.03% against the previous price of 65.03 to close at $65.05. Recall that the initial huge decline in oil price in late 2014 caused the Federal Government of Nigeria to review downwards its benchmark oil price for 2015 budget.

Today’s Brent crude price is $12.05 above the $53 per barrel oil benchmark price for 2015 budget. You would recall that the Federal government of Nigeria initially set the benchmark price for 2015 budget at $78 before the first downward review to $73 of which circumstances forced it to review further down to $65 per barrel, which was proposed in the submitted 2015 appropriation bill to the national assembly but was eventually passed at $53.



Today, the price of Brent Crude oil (Nigeria’s crude oil type) was USD65.05 per barrel while the other variant of crude (WTI) traded at $58.25 per barrel as at 10.58ET.

To View Commodity Prices Click Here.. 

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