Monday, January 22, 2018
11.18AM/ FBNQuest Research
Today’s chart shows the monthly inflows and outflows of fx through the
CBN over the past year. The data series in the CBN’s Quarterly Statistical
Bulletin shows the same for autonomous (ie non-CBN) sources. The split for
total inflows is roughly 40% CBN and 60% autonomous, and for total outflows a
very different 90% CBN and 10% autonomous.
The autonomous inflows are mostly over-the-counter purchases, which, in
turn, are largely capital importations. This last category would cover the
offshore portfolio community.
A striking trend in the chart is the strong increase
in CBN inflows over the six months to September. The total rose by US$3.06bn
over this period, consisting of US$830m from oil and US$2.23bn from non-oil
sources. The first is consistent with the recovery in oil production/decrease
in sabotage, and the second with the improvement in fx liquidity as a result of
the opening of new fx windows.
This sharp increase in CBN (and autonomous) inflows
has enabled the central bank to channel fx into the economy through an
acceleration in its sales to the interbank market (forward and spot) and the
bureaux de change.
The net flow has been transformed over the six-month
period: from –US$330m (negative) in March to US$2.04bn in September for the
CBN, and from US$3.09bn to US$5.09bn for autonomous transactions. The net flow
would have gathered momentum in the intervening period.
The data series has some welcome surprises such as lines for swaps,
recovered funds (none this year), cash-call payments to the oil joint-ventures
and external debt service. There are some matching disappointments. These
include the absence of entries this year for proceeds of Eurobond sales.
- CBN Injects $210m into Forex Market
- Retail SMIs get $262.5m CBN boost
- Nigeria’s External Reserves Hit $40.4 Billion as CBN
Injects $210m into Interbank Market
- Forex Market Gets Another $210m Boost from CBN
- Reserves Heading Towards US$40bn
- Naira Stability, Policy Stability
- CBN Boosts Forex Market with $210m
- CBN Ends Forex Trading Week With $288m Retail SMIS
- CBN Injects $210m Into Forex Market