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Forex Market Analysis: USD and JPY Consolidates around 111.84 Support Level, ahead of FED Meeting

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Wednesday, May 3, 2017/ 2:30 PM /Meristem 


Source: MERI FX

Fundamental Indication
The pair has rallied since the 19th of March, 2017, netting 2.87% appreciation. The pair retraced slightly on Tuesday and pared some of its strong gains. This could be attributed to some profit-taking activities around the key resistance level.  

Today, The U.S Federal Reserve is expected to release its latest interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.  Although the FED is not expected to raise rates at this meeting, investors are keen on the outcome of the meeting, as they await forward guidance on the number of expected rate hikes in 2017 as well as the timing of those rate hikes. 

Aside other external factors, a hawkish Fed may boost the U.S. Dollar and pressure the Japanese Yen. A dovish Fed may weaken the US Dollar and strengthen the Japanese Yen.

Technical Analysis
The pair has been trading within its downward channel. The US Dollar has appreciated against the Japanese Yen and has approached a resistance area. 

Scenario 1:
·    If the pair reaches the top of the channel with a bearish candlestick confirmation and rising momentum, we advise a “SELL”.

·         Stop loss at the high of the bearish candlestick
·         Price target at 108.43.

Scenario 2:
·    If the pair breaks through the channel and pulls back to it with a bullish candlestick confirmation we advise a “BUY”.
·         Stop loss at the low of the bullish candlestick.
·         First price target: 115.00.

·         Second Price target 117.74.

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