Fiscal Policy | |
Fiscal Policy | |
8623 VIEWS | |
![]() |
Tuesday, October 1, 2019 / 03:19PM / By Chukwuma
Charles Soludo, CFR* / Header Image Credit: The
Platform
Being the text of the prepared speech by Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo,
CFR, former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria; at The Platform Nigeria's
annual independence lecture themed "Redesigning the Nigerian Economy with
New Ideas" held at The Covenant Place, Beside the National Theatre, Iganmu;
October 1, 2019.
I:
Introduction/Disclaimer
Happy
Independence Day Celebration!!!
Many
thanks to Pastor Poju and the organizers of The Platform for the invitation. Let
us start with a disclaimer. We accepted the invitation on 17th May, 2019 and had
written our remarks a few weeks back. When our membership of the Economic
Advisory Council was announced on the 16th September, we agonised
as to whether we should still honour the invitation or whether we should still
present the paper. Finally, we decided to be here but have removed several of
the pages that contain issues we believe should be on the agenda of the
Council--- we do not want to pre-empt the work of the Council. More
specifically, we do not focus on the macroeconomic, sectoral, and structural
policies, programmes and projects needed at the moment.
We focus on the future, and concentrate narrowly on the type of meta-level, political-legal-governance foundation upon which the future can sustainably stand. Our thesis is that if you want to change a persisting economic structure, change the underling institutions (we can write a fat book on this: our experience with the NEEDS vis-a-vis banking recapitalization/consolidation was one case study that showed that to translate the hitherto slogan of private sector-led economy into reality needed a different banking/financial institution...). For the national economy, it will be difficult to have a competitive and prosperous post-oil economy of the future (with additional hundreds of millions of citizens and dwindling land space) with the same legal and institutional foundation designed for consumption of oil rent. You can't build a 100 storey-building upon a foundation of an old bungalow. A post oil economy requires that all agents maximize their fullest potentials, and what is required will be a national rather than a federal response. You can't clap with one hand. Once the focus is wealth creation rather than sharing and consumption of oil rents, we need a new national business model. Unfortunately, the link between law- Constitution- institutions- Judiciary, etc and economic transformation seems to be the weakest link in our design of national agenda. In the future, hopefully the National Assembly, Ministry of Justice, the states and other stakeholders might take up the assignment...
II:
Context
We have
not come to read the Book of Lamentations about Nigeria's woes, nor to sing the
songs of David. We see the half-empty glass, but we prefer to focus on the
half-full glass. We want to focus on the future-rather than the past or the
present. As mentioned above, we are asked to speak on "The Economic
Restructuring of Nigeria"-an omnibus topic indeed! Since the First National
Development Plan (1962- 68), transformation of the economic
structure/diversification has been the fulcrum of all national plans. For
decades, every government has tried its brand of 'economic restructuring' or
economic diversification and yet the economy remains tied to the life-support
of oil, peasant agriculture and largely informal services sector. Income
inequality, poverty, and unemployment remain major defining features of the
economy.
The
urgency of the moment is warranted by the context of the new and complicating
realities. Oil will be history in less than 20 years' time but the pressures of
peculiar demographics and geography are upon us. Nigeria has one of the highest
population growth rates in the world. If current trends continue and you
believe the population figures, then the future may be overwhelming. By the
time a child born today turns 30 (about 2050), there will be about 400 million
Nigerians and when she is 80 (about 2100), there will be about 752 million
Nigerians (third largest population in the world). All these people will have
to survive and prosper in a tiny but declining land mass (923,000 sqkm) - declining
due to desertification and erosion, and Nigeria will have the highest
population density in the world among the top ten most populous countries.
Lagos is estimated to be home to some 88 million people by 2100 crammed in
barely 3,345 sqkm of land (or 26,307 persons per sqkm-a nightmare! Lagos is
clearly unsustainable in the long run and risky for its business
concentration). All these people will need land, housing, water, food, power,
education and health facilities, sewage and waste disposal, transportation, and
yes, job, jobs! The population is very youthful with 43% between 0-14 years
old; 53% between 15-65 years and 4% over 65 years.
And the
world is not waiting for Nigeria. The world is on the 4th Industrial revolution
with digital economy and we are struggling with the first stage of Rostow's
stages of growth. Artificial intelligence together with other future
technologies such as robotics, synthetic biology, computational science,
nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3D and 4D printing, internet of Things,
cognitive science, self-driving vehicles, etc--- will surely produce totally
different social and economic configurations than what we know today. Check out
China's "Made in China 2025 Plan" and its targeted top 10 industries with an
aim to dominate the world. All these entail humungous creative destruction
going on with huge job losses and future structural unemployment. While
electric cars are fast replacing diesel/petrol cars many of our people are
still building petrol stations; small shops are proliferating while
agglomeration in terms of huge shopping malls together with e-shopping are the
trend; automation is upon us, etc. Ordinary people who can't explain what has
hit them, resort to all sorts of criminal activities to survive.
Most futurologists
believe that with billions of people being added to the global population, only
new systems for food, water, energy, education, health, skills development and
job creation, economics and governance will avert potential disastrous
consequences for humanity and the environment (See the 2015-16 State of
the Future). Economic restructuring strategy of the future therefore
entails thinking through the alternative future scenarios and mapping out
alternative possible proactive responses. In which areas/sectors does Nigeria
proactively position to become global leaders by the end of 2050 or the
century? Closer home, Nigeria has signed the African Continental Free Trade
Agreement (AfCFTA). Insularity won't be an option. The name of the game of the
future in an increasingly integrated world is innovate/compete or die.
Let's
break it down. Economic restructuring of the future is about positioning
Nigeria to compete and win in an increasingly complex world thereby
guaranteeing the security, prosperity and happiness of the 400 or 752 million
Nigerians, in a world without oil. It will require deploying a gamut of
legal-regulatory-governance regimes, macro and sectoral policies and programmes
to alter the spatial/geographical concentration of economic activities,
structure of production from primary to industrial and post-modern service
sectors, from peasant to commercial agriculture, from exhaustible natural
resources to renewable and dynamic human resource as engine of sustainable
development; etc. With a current GDP of about US$400 billion (down from $540
billion) and negative per capita income growth (with rising unemployment and
poverty), the restructuring of the future would entail transformational changes
to generate and sustain broad based growth of at least 7% (from recent 1-2%)
which is required for poverty reduction and employment generation.
Put
differently, if we target to be a middle-income country of say, US$7,500 per
capita by 2100 (from about $1,930 currently), then we need a GDP of over US$5.5
trillion by 2100 (thereby requiring double digit annual growth). The agenda to
do this won't just require thinking outside of the box - it would require
thinking without the box at all: big, bold plan and action! At the macro
level, the fundamental challenge currently is that the economy is stuck at a
very low speed lane in the context of a debt cliff with little fiscal space,
while monetary policy is at near its limits, and low savings-investment trap,
with rising unemployment and poverty. To get to poverty reducing and employment
generating trajectory in the short-term requires serious heavy lifting, with
major difficult choices and extraordinary coordination ahead. Surely the
governments at all levels have their jobs cut out for them, and we won't dwell
on that here.
In sum,
the alternative future that we see is one without oil, and where other
exhaustible natural resources play very little role. The future economy will be
driven by people—our youths and technology. Nigeria's people/youths remain its
potentially greatest asset--- potentially renewable resource for productivity,
huge market, and even export. Yes, the next bigger than oil export earner for
Nigeria will (potentially) be its human capital. Currently, Nigeria earns
almost as much from oil exports as it earns from remittances from its Diaspora.
But we cannot export illiterates in a world driven by digital revolution. The
easiest way to waste the future is to continue to churn out millions of
semi-illiterate, largely unemployable citizens, most of whom see criminality as
the only route to escape the poverty trap or drug as the opium for solace. With
an urbanization rate of over 5%, the conflagration that might ensure when
hundreds of millions surge to the cities but can't find jobs, housing, water
and food can only be imagined. Soon, the rich won't be able to sleep because
the poor, homeless and hungry are awake.
By the
way, who says that we can't have smart population policy that encourages people
to have the number of children that they can train, and also ensure reliable
population census using biometrics rather than the political population figures
we have? Whatever the case, the challenge is how to deliberately optimize the
potentials of the huge youthful population to be highly productive at home and
competitive/exportable abroad. An educational system with 21st century curricula
powered by technology that guarantees one youth, one to three skills might be a
winning strategy.
As the
Western population ages and declines, they would need productive labour and
Nigeria can smartly position to become the largest supplier of such
labour-indirectly through outsourcing or directly. Nigeria would have to
leapfrog the industrialization ladder and services sector to provide urban jobs
and rely upon smart technology to grow the food to feed the hundreds of millions.
Peasant agriculture has little future especially as the population density
surges with rapidly declining plot of land per capita. If Nigeria prospers
relative to its neighbours, it would witness a surge in migration from other
African countries under the free movement of goods and persons protocol-with
all the further complications for existing facilities.
III: The Challenge of Weak Foundation
The
question is whether the existing foundation is adequate or appropriate for the
dynamics and challenges of the future? Unfortunately, the answer is no. Our
Constitution, together with its command and control institutions concentrated
at Abuja was designed for and around the sharing and consumption of oil rent.
It is largely obsolete for the demands of a productive economy (without oil
rents) which requires competitive and flexible rather than unitary
federalism. As the oil rent that held the system together is tapering
off, its internal contradictions have burst open, requiring a coterie of survival/coping
mechanisms to keep the system afloat. But for how long?
See for
example, the 12 clusters of variables that are considered in computing the
Fragile/Failed States Index by the U.S Fund for Peace. The index which aims to "assess vulnerability to collapse" summarizes the failure of Nigeria's
institution and measures four clusters of variables, namely: a) Cohesion (security
apparatus, factionalized elite, and group grievance); b) Economic (economic
decline, uneven economic development, and human flight and brain drain); c) Political (state
legitimacy, public services, and human rights and rule of law); and d) Social (demographic
pressures, refugees and IDPs, and external intervention). Nigeria's ranking has
deteriorated from 54 in 2005 and now stands between 13 and 15 over the past
eight years and largely in the Red Alert category with countries such as
Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti, Guinea, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, etc. Long-term
sustainable transformation must address the root of this systemic decline. In a
multi-ethnic, multi-religious society such as ours, designing institutions for
stability and prosperity requires great care and should always be a
work-in-progress.
Since
2005 when we delivered the Democracy Day Lecture and in several of our previous
articles (see "Nigeria Without Oil"; a three-part article on the back
page of ThisDay entitled "Reconstructing Nigeria for Prosperity", "The
Political Economy of Restructuring the Nigerian Federation", etc) we have
elaborately demonstrated how the current Constitution and its institutions
stifle innovation and competition and hence inimical to rapid economic
transformation in a post-oil world. We showed how Section 162 of the
Constitution has created a perverse Lottery Effect, destroyed the incentive for
wealth creation on the part of governments and foisted an indolent culture of
entitlements. As opposed to the productive, self-financing regions of the First
Republic, all the tiers of government now converge at Abuja every month to
share largely oil revenue. Except perhaps Lagos State, hardly any other state
or local government or even the FGN can fund its recurrent expenditures without
oil money.
Add to
the above the suffocating concentration of powers at Abuja (see the long list
of items on the exclusive and concurrent lists of the Constitution).
Consequently, the federal government is saddled with hundreds of parastatals
and agencies trying to inefficiently micro manage the entire country, with the
recurrent expenditure of FGN plus debt service exceeding federal revenue. Abuja
imposes common rather than minimum standards. It sets the same wage to be paid
by states irrespective of their incomes-of course on the assumption that the
oil money will always be there to pay for it. FGN maintains federal marriage registry,
issues drivers' license-which should be local government affair, runs primary
and secondary schools, etc. We have centralized policing even with state
governors as 'chief security officers'-and expect the future 400 or 752 million
Nigerians to be secured from Abuja. The Federal Government has exclusive right
over all minerals, while the Land Use Act grants the Governors the right over
land. To get to the solid minerals, you must have access to the land and the
conflict between State and community powers over land vis-a-vis the federal
right to what is underneath it has not been resolved. The enduring
conflict as well as the continuing flow of oil rents have combined to provide
little incentive to develop the solid minerals. The list is long and we don't
intend to rehash it here. By trying to keep everyone in check, Abuja has
inadvertently held the entire country down.
One final
example is the judicial system. Property rights and rule of law constitute the
foundation of a modern economy. In Nigeria, we copied the American presidential
system but forgot to copy their multi-layered judicial system consistent with a
federation. Instead we are stuck with a highly centralized system consistent
with the command and control structure of the 1999 Constitution and its unitary
federalism. Every little matter can end up at the only Supreme Court: if
someone steals his neighbour's goat in Calabar, or there is a dispute over
ownership of a shop in Jos or someone dupes a petty trader of her capital in
Lagos, the court cases may, on appeals, end up at the Supreme Court. A
pre-election dispute in a local government election in Yobe or Abia state (a
purely local and state affair) can also end up at the same Supreme Court and in
many cases the judgement comes after the wrong candidate has served out the
term.
The
courts are congested: with about 117,000 pending cases at the Federal High
Court alone, estimated tens of thousands at the Appeal court, and over 30,000
at the Supreme Court. Court cases, including commercial disputes can last for
decades. As the population balloons, it is expected that the number of pending
cases under the current system will continue to multiply. The prisons are
overcrowded. Chidi Odinkalu estimates (using case study of federal prisons in Imo
state and if those are representative) that the congestion rate is 170% and
with 86% of prison inmates awaiting trial. Most prisoners end up serving terms
higher than would have been the case if convicted. The judges are grossly
overworked and underpaid. Nigeria's Supreme Court is probably the only one in
the world where the justices sit every day, and yet pending cases keep mounting
in thousands. As the saying goes, justice delayed is justice denied. How
do we expect the future economy to compete and win in the new world in a
society where it can take more than 20 years to settle a simple commercial
dispute that takes few days in other countries? Also our system for fighting
corruption is again concentrated at Abuja. Can we seriously expect the ICPC and
EFCC to police 774 LGAs and the impending 752 million Nigerians?
We can go
on and on. Global evidence is that institutions drive economic transformation
but sadly much of our institutions are either obsolete or inappropriate for the
demands of the future. Some analysts and politicians brandish economic
blueprints for a post-oil Nigeria but without the concomitant
legal-political-governance infrastructure to deliver such Plans. This is
actually a key missing link in many of the failed National Plans not only in
Nigeria but also in many countries. Such economistic plans either sought to
legislate politics out of public policy or misunderstood change to be a
push-button technocratic process. Such plans are often predicated on the false
assumption that committed and visionary leadership to implement them will fall
from the skies without understanding that except by occasional fluke, the type
of leaders in a society is a product of the system. In the end, politics
will always trump economics.
It is
fair to say that no issue commands a greater, broader consensus in Nigeria
today than a recognition that the current system needs fundamental overhaul and
hence the deafening call for "restructuring" the Nigerian federation. Almost
the entire Nigerian socio-cultural-political groups (South West/Yoruba Nation;
South South; South East/Ndigbo; Middle Belt, and the former Northern Region)
have either produced or are working to announce their template for "restructuring". Even some political parties, led by the All Progressives
Congress (APC), have either announced details of their position on
restructuring or made "true federalism" the centre piece of their manifestoes
for a better Nigeria.
More
fundamentally, the APC promised a bolder action plan in its 2015
Manifesto: "As a change Agent, APC intend to cleanse our closet to
halt the dangerous drift of Nigeria to a failed state; with a conscious plan
for post-oil-economy in Nigeria. To achieve this laudable programme APC
government shall restructure the country, devolve power to the units, with the
best practices of federalism and eliminate unintended paralysis of the center".
During the last general election, several candidates ran on the platform of 'restructuring'. The loudest agitation for "restructuring" comes from
ethno-religious-political organizations and occasionally also some politicians.
Unfortunately, the fundamental economic argument is often beclouded by the
politics of the agitation. Mutual suspicion has crept in about 'motives' and
the word 'restructuring' now means different things to different people.
Perhaps
it is time to simplify or change the language. Instead of 'restructuring', can
we call it 'systemic or institutional reforms', or 'devolution and fiscal
federalism' or 'Designing a new constitution for prosperity', etc. It is going
to be a political-legal process, with continuing bargaining among different
interest groups and the ensuing compromises but should be guided by our history
and evidence. Useful lessons may also be learnt from other countries such as
Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Canada, the U.S. and Brazil. We should keep
it simple but with eyes on the ball, namely: to design relevant
political-legal-governance infrastructure to ensure security and prosperity of
the 752 million Nigerians in 80 years' time or even the most populous country
in the world in the 22nd century!
What
Should Be Done?
1) Create a
Productive Progressive (PP) Constitution for a world without oil.
Among
other things, this would entail:
a) Political-governance
arrangements that ensure participation and ownership of the Nigerian project by
all citizens of the federation - a stable and more
efficient system which promotes fairness, equity and justice. The PP
Constitution that gives everyone a stake should orchestrate a new Nigerian
citizen/identity. A key focus would be to address those clusters of variables
in the U.S Fund for Peace Fragile States Index and which ranks Nigeria under
the Red Alert category. In 2003-4, we identified that exiting the Financial
Action Task Force (FATF) list of non-compliant countries as well as debt relief
were decisive for rejigging the economy and we framed policies and legislation
around them. We succeeded and the economy was better for it. Similarly, exiting
the Red Alert list of the Fragile States Index is a desideratum. Nigeria now
ranks 14 while Ghana ranks 110-and little surprise that companies are
relocating to Ghana especially given the AfCFTA.
b) Devolution of
powers according to the principle of subsidiarity and variable
geometry - away from the current system of unitary-federalism, with
its choking concentration of powers and responsibilities at the inefficient
centre; thereby giving power back to the people. Unless we assume that oil boom
will rebound and endure, devolution is a matter of survival for the FGN and the
economy. The federal government should loosen its hold on policing, electricity
(power), railways, ports, aviation, business incorporation, vehicle and drivers
licensing, taxation powers, regulatory functions, schools, prisons, etc. This
will give impetus for a totally different economy. The FGN can strengthen its
regulatory oversight, while states may partner with local and international
corporates to deliver on these. Cross River or Delta state, Rivers or Akwa
Ibom, for example, may attract foreign investors to develop their ports and
compete between themselves and reap bountiful revenues. Nigeria needs at least
6- 10 other cities like Lagos to emerge (for the 752 million Nigerians) but it
can't happen without competitive federation.
In
addition, the PP Constitution should define a new Fiscal federalism that is
consistent with devolution of powers and which alters the incentives faced by
economic and political actors, thereby unleashing the competitive spirit, hard
work, innovation and efficiency which are the hallmarks of prosperous economies
of the future. Fiscal relations affect the behaviour of firms, households and
governments and hence economic activity. The local government system should be
scrapped from the Constitution. A federation has two federating units and not
three--- each state should decide on appropriate local government system for
it. Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution needs to be scrapped and replaced with
a fiscal arrangement that is consistent with devolution of powers. We also need
to abrogate the Land Use Act of 1978, the Solid Minerals Act, as well as the
various Petroleum/Gas Acts and amendments, and return the right of ownership,
control and exploitation of these assets to the federating units as proposed by
the APC Committee on restructuring led by Gov. El-Rufai. In turn, they should
pay appropriate taxes to the federal government.
Nigeria
urgently needs a new Fiscal Responsibility Act to constrain
irresponsible fiscal behaviour and provide incentives to create wealth.
A new fiscal regime should ensure that never again shall we need a wholesale
bailout of state governments. For example, fiscal transfers should be
based on performance as well as in the form of matching grants scheme (thereby
replacing unconditional transfers with conditional transfers). Another example
is that the fiscal responsibility law could constrain governments at all levels
to meet their recurrent expenditures out of their internally generated revenues
while revenue from natural resources are deployed only for physical and human
capital development. Such fiscal responsibility Act may also constrain at least
90% of all borrowing to be for project finance that will repay itself. Our
current structure is centred on consumption, with an unsustainable public
finance. An alternative structure would free up resources for investment and
hence growth. This will completely alter the incentive system and power a
different trajectory for the economy.
Much of
the tax powers are currently concentrated at the National Assembly and this
constrains states' flexibility in deploying fiscal instruments for development.
For example, why should all corporate taxes and Value Added Tax be paid into
the federation account? Wherein lies the incentive for states and local
governments to attract and promote industrialization? Personal income tax will
increasingly not be enough incentive in a future dominated by robotics and
digital economy. If the power for the incorporation of companies is devolved to
the states, perhaps some could be creative to design tax haven status for some
categories of companies. Some countries make hundreds of millions of dollars
per annum from this kind of innovation. Our point is that the federating
units should have the flexibility to deploy corporate taxation as a veritable
instrument to attract or promote enterprise and for independent revenues.
Furthermore, why should we have uniform salary scales across the country or
even common minimum wage? There is just too much of a unitary system which
constrains everyone to move at the same speed instead of incentivising
different segments of the society to innovate and prosper at different speeds.
2.
Legal-Judicial infrastructure and Law as active instrument of economic transformation
In the 21st century, a prosperous
economy is not sustainable without a sound and efficient judicial system. We
need a progressive and practical new structure that can deliver justice to the
hundreds of millions of Nigerians and businesses at the shortest possible time.
As a layman, we wonder why Nigeria can't have state or zonal appeals and
supreme courts over local and state matters or why state election matters should
go to federal courts in a federation. The PP Constitution should provide for
specialized courts, especially commercial courts. Nigeria needs to invest
heavily on the judiciary-infrastructure with cutting edge technology as well as
continuous upgrading of knowledge/skills of judges. Our judiciary should be
part of our brand. Let's do what it takes to brand Nigeria as a nation of laws.
For example, London could not have become an international financial centre
without efficient judicial system or thousands of contracts in the world
indicating London as the jurisdiction for adjudication/arbitration. Can we at
least target to be the number one legal jurisdiction in Africa? With AfCFTA,
businesses will relocate to more friendly environments since they will have
access to all African markets. As Africa's largest economy, we ought to have
its best judiciary. Furthermore, we need to consciously deploy law as an
instrument of socio-economic transformation by enacting relevant laws to
unleash competition and enterprise as well as progressive regulations for the
future economy. Our ministry of Justice should have a new job description that
is developmental.
While the
above might seem a heavy agenda, we can start with a low hanging fruit namely,
the APC's minimum template. The Gov El-Rufai's Committee on Restructuring has
several interesting recommendations but three stand out, namely: state police,
scrapping of the local government system from the Constitution, and resource
control. The APC recommends abrogating the extant legislations and transferring
rights over minerals to the federating units or states. With the APC Committee
Report and Manifesto, it is fair for Nigerians to ask: so, what's holding
action? The APC at least has a Committee Report which is public knowledge.
Where is the position of PDP as the main opposition party?
What is suggested above is part of the foundational plan for Nigeria's future prosperity without oil. The contradictions of the old, oil-based economy vis-a-vis the population and geographical pressures are swirling and the challenge of a new institutional framework to lead the emergence of the new economy is urgent. We have a choice of pre-emptive, proactive action to orchestrate a new productive (rather than sharing/consumption) structure or wait until change is forced upon us in a most chaotic manner. A wise man gets the umbrella ready before the rain starts. We are currently at the cul-de-sac and need a fundamental disruptive change to reverse the trend. A central message therefore is that systemic restructuring is not only progressive politics but excellent economics.
3. Fix
our broken politics through ideologically and value-oriented mass participation.
A secured
and prosperous country of the future won't drop from the skies. Nor can we
legislate politics out of public policy. Every advanced or progressive society
we see in the world today is the product of organization, struggles and
continuous contestations for a more perfect union or society. In a democracy,
there is no other route to a better future than the instrumentality of
politics. Politics is therefore too serious to be left to those who call
themselves politicians. It is our collective destiny.
Unfortunately,
our politics is broken. It is destructive rather than developmental. We define
Nigeria's current politics as largely "dining table politics"--- the 'you chop
I chop', or what an author Michela Wrong describes as "It is our turn to eat" politics. Consequently, political parties are mere platforms to grab power---
same people, same interest---driven by crass opportunism and primitive
accumulation. It is largely about "what is in it for my pocket" and not about "how can I contribute to leave this world a better place than I met it"? When a
minister is appointed, his friends and ethnic or religious group shamelessly
celebrate or complain depending on whether they consider it as 'juicy' or 'dry' appointment. Yet the same people complain about corruption in government. We
have a national crisis of value dressed in hypocrisy. We really have a long way
to the future of our dream. But a problem identified is half solved.
For
starters, we need to fix the electoral and judicial system to ensure that only
votes count and all votes are counted. This will transfer real power back to
the people, free from the stranglehold of an opportunistic elite. With power in
the hands of the people and with the institutional reforms proposed above which
require leaders with capacity for wealth creation, then ideas-based,
cake-baking politics can emerge. The current politics is woven around the
sharing and consumption of oil rents-and you don't need any productive skills
or to be a person of ideas to be able to "share the money".
But the
oil money is fast running out. Total oil income is barely $100 per person-not
enough to provide 21st century primary and secondary education to our children. The 2019
budget of FGN (if implemented 100%) translates to about $120 per capita--- to
fund debt servicing (which is about 22%), pay salaries, run the huge
bureaucracy, schools and hospitals, police and military, maintain embassies
abroad, roads and railways, etc. The obscene cost of governance and stealing at
all levels of government is known. This is within the context that some
millions of children are out of school, over 30% of the population are food
poor, millions without medication, water, housing, and jobs while a few
politicians display obscene lifestyles. In the U.S, the wife of the Governor of
the state of Maine (with per capita income of $47,969) in 2017 had to take up a
job in a Restaurant to augment the income of her husband- as they wanted to
save money to buy Toyota Rav4 car for her. In Nigeria with per capita income
of $1,930 and even in states with per capita income below $1,000 per annum, you
can complete the story...! Soon or later, something will give and a totally
different politics needs to emerge to secure the future.
Ideas-based
or ideologically driven politics is the future. Forget about the names of the
parties-democratic, progressive, liberal, etc-there are no discernible
differences except the membership, which also switches and changes every
minute. A review of the manifestoes of the political party candidates during
the last elections is troubling. Many of us still remember the four cardinal
programmes and ideologies of the five political parties of the Second Republic
but I doubt how many people can coherently explain what their parties stand for
today. For example, how can you identify an APC or PDP state if you see
one? Beyond sloganeering, we have serious work to do. Our view is
that as the system transits from a rentier, cake-sharing regime to one of
cake-baking, citizens of conscience, regardless of ethnicity and religion, must
realign along ideological lines to offer Nigerians real alternatives regarding
the pathways to their future. Mass participation founded on patriotism,
passion and values of hard work and integrity should drive the politics of the
future. Those who have something to offer for a better future-especially our
youths-- must stand up to be counted or stop complaining. The perverse value of
some of the youths summarized by the phrase "get rich young or die trying" is
not part of the future we desire. We must be the change we want to see. Only a
vigilant and active citizenry that holds public officers to account will secure
the future.
IV: Conclusion
We must
now conclude. Our summary message is that an alternative glorious future - the
next Nigeria for 400 or 752 million Nigerians-- is possible. It is a future
without oil but powered by our greatest asset-human capital plus technology,
and which guarantees security, prosperity and happiness. But transition to that
future requires a new foundation as it is impossible to try to build a 100
storey-building upon the foundation of an old bungalow. Elements of this
foundation include a PP Constitution that creates a competitive federation;
devolution of powers that unbundles Abuja and loosens its choking stranglehold
on the economy; a fiscal federalism that promotes competition, innovation and
hard work; a new judicial structure and performance that brands Nigeria as a
country of laws with the best judiciary in Africa; and a new developmental
politics with citizens power.
Of course
Nigeria has a long list of problems, but adversity comes with opportunities.
With a will to overcome, the problems should not stop us. Nor should a few
thousands of miscreants - kidnappers, terrorists, internet scammers, bandits,
drug barons, robbers, and treasury looters - define us. As we build the
foundation for the next Nigeria, we must seize the narrative and sing a new
song to rebrand Nigeria. As we bemoan the rising poverty and unemployment, we
still remind ourselves that ours is still the largest economy in Africa and
Nigeria as home to the most populous black nation on earth. When I hear about
the 77 FBI list, I remember that Nigerians constitute the most educated and
highest earning immigrant community in the US; when I hear about the drug
barons, I remember that Alaba Market has the largest business incubator in the
world; when the news about kidnappers, bandits and terrorists adorn the
newspaper headlines, I remember the over 200 million law abiding and
hard-working citizens; when I hear about the afrophobia and the stereotyping of
Nigerians in South Africa, I recall that the richest black man and woman -Dangote and Mrs Alakija are Nigerians, or that Tony Elumelu foundation is
empowering thousands of young African entrepreneurs or Allen Onyema/Air Peace
recently took over the job of government by transporting hundreds of Nigerians
from South Africa free of charge or that Glo communications is owned by our own
Mike Adenuga or that the former Secretary General of the Commonwealth -Chief
Emeka Anyaoku is a Nigerian, and yes, Nigerian banks - Zenith, GTB, UBA,
Access, FBN, Union, etc have, since after banking consolidation, become our
multinational corporations all over Africa, and that Nigerian investment
banker-Adebayo Ogunlesi bought Gatwick and other airports in the UK.
When
someone remarked that Obinwannne- the famed Forbes kid alleged scammer is from
Nnewi, I quickly reminded him that Ibeto, Innoson Motors, Chikason, Coscharis,
Emeka Offor, etc are also from the old Nnewi. When someone tells me that our
youths are underperforming, I remind her of the youths at the Ikeja Computer
village or that a young man from Anambra just invented a generator that runs on
water or the young girls from Regina Pacis secondary school, Onitsha who won
the global prize for innovation, and don't forget that the patent for the world
fastest computer belongs to Philip Emeagwali and that Jelani Aliyu from Sokoto
designed the Chevrolet Volt car. Or when anyone tells me that Nigerians can't
write, I mention our Nobel Laurette Wole Soyinka, Chinua Achebe, and yes, the
new kid on the block- Chimamanda Adichie, etc. When I hear of the looting
leaders of today, I remember the visionary and selfless leaders of
yesterday-Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, Ahmadu Bello, M.I. Okpara, Alex
Ekwueme, Shehu Shagari, Sam Mbakwe, Aminu Kano, Balarabe Musa; Bola Ige,
Lateef Jakande, Samuel Ogbemudia, and yes, former President Obasanjo has earned
his place in Nigeria's history as a leader and statesman, etc. Of course, we
won't forget our footballers, athletes, musicians and Nollywood stars-all
brandishing our green, white, green flag to the world. The list is long, and
sometimes I wish that Wole Soyinka or Chimamanda would write a bestseller
entitled: "Nigeria: The Counter Narratives".
The point
here is that for every one big challenge, there are possibly more than ten
opportunities out there. I believe that God has blessed Nigeria with everything
to be the most prosperous home for the black race. We need to unleash the
creative geniuses in our people by designing the appropriate institutions to
power a 21st century economy without oil. The current National Assembly can
choose to do something historic or continue to kick the can down the road, and
hopefully a future parliament will come to the rescue. We have no other country
but Nigeria and we must make it work. If God, in His infinite wisdom, decided
to put us together thus far, there must be a reason. As Africa deepens its
integration (starting with the AfCFTA), I dream of a future United States of
Africa, and possibly with Nigeria as its California. I see our huge problems
but I focus on the solutions. The choice is ours, and I believe that if we
(together) choose to work hard at them, the next Nigeria of our dream is
possible!
Thank
you.
* About The
Author
Dr. Charles
Chukwuma Soludo, CFR is an Economics Professor and a former Governor and
chairman of the board of directors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Dr.
Soludo had cumulative four years of post-doctoral training in some of the world's
most prestigious institutions, including: The Brookings Institution,
Washington, DC; University of Cambridge, UK, as Smuts Research Fellow and
Fellow of the Wolfson College; the UN Economic Commission for Africa as a
Post-Doctoral Fellow; University of Warwick as a Visiting scholar and Visiting
Research Scholar at Center for African Economies, University of Oxford.
Previous
Articles By Author
3.
Reconstructing Nigeria for Prosperity (1) - Sept 03, 2012
4.
Reconstructing
Nigeria for Prosperity (2) - Sept 17, 2012
5.
Reconstructing
Nigeria for Prosperity (3) - Proshare Nigeria - Oct 02, 2012
6.
The Hard Facts To Rescue The Nigerian Economy ... - Apr 5, 2017
Related News
2.
Nigeria at 59: President Buhari Reiterates Call
For Unity Across The Nation
3.
5 to 9 Insurance Questions for Nigeria at 59
4.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary - Week Ended Sept 27,
2019
5.
FAAC Disburses N769.53bn in August 2019 - NBS
6.
Update on Naira Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange
7.
Poverty in Nigeria: Understanding and Bridging The
Divide Between North and South
8.
Nigerian Consumers' Spending Patterns Are Changing -
Pilot Report
9.
The President's Economic Men - Understanding The
Next Phase of Economic Management
10.
Headline Inflation Increases By 11.02% YoY In August
2019; 0.06% Lower Than July 2019 Rate
11.
How The CBN LDR Will Shape Nigeria's Economy- Dr.
Adesola Adeduntan
12.
Merchandise Trade Increased Significantly YoY But
Marginally Over Q1 2019, Driven By Higher Imports
13.
August 2019 Inflation Set to Inflect Upwards By
0.07% To 11.15%
14.
Buhari's First 100 Days: Honeymoon or Honeyfire?
15.
Q2 GDP Growth Slumps to 1.94%: But There Is
"Fire in Soweto"
16.
Fasten Your Seatbelts, There Is Turbulence Ahead -
LBS Executive Breakfast Session - Sept 2019
17. Coronation Research Releases Outlook for Insurance Sector - From
Lagoon To The Blue Ocean
18. Nigerian Consumers' Spending Patterns Are Changing - Pilot
Report
19. Leadership, Change and Corporate Transformation - The Nigerian
Experience - Apr 03, 2018
20. What The Future Of Trust Looks Like