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Retailers Brace up for a Bleak Christmas

Proshare

Friday, November 18, 2016 9:44 AM /fdc

The price of a 50kg bag of rice crossed N25,000 in Benin city this week.

The Cway water dispenser refill which sold for N350, jumped 43% to N500 in Lagos.

Retailers across Nigeria are bracing themselves for a bleak Christmas as Headline Inflation crossed the 18% level in October.

The attached/below report summarizes the commodity price movements for this week.

Burning Economic Issues

• NNPC adopts alternative funding for JV cash calls

• Arrears now in excess of $8.4bn

• Aviation scarcity disrupting flights

• Average delay of 3 – 4 hours

• Demand for cars down by 37.5%

• Parallel market crashes again to N465/$

• Cost of rice higher outside Lagos – N27,000 in Benin city

Domestic Commodity Prices

• Price of Cway water up 43% to N500

• Retailers brace for bleak Christmas

• Diesel price flat at N200/liter



Stock Market

•NSE ASI down by 0.79% (25, 653.14pts)

•Investor sentiment negative

•Wait and see ahead of MPC meeting



Oil prices in tailspin
• Brent crude down 1.06% to $46.66pb

9.19% lower than October’s average of $51.38pb

• U.S crude stockpiles to swell by 3.6mb – API

• Market softness ahead of OPEC meeting

• U.S gasoline exports up 35% - highest since 2010



Outlook – oil prices

• Oil futures maintain bearish tone

• Possibility of an OPEC production cut deal uncertain

• Mounting U.S stockpiles a cause for concern

• Global demand not strong enough to soak up excess supply

Outlook – agric prices 

Grains
 

• Favourable weather in Brazil will boost corn supplies

• Abundant U.S wheat stockpiles will suppress prices

Soft

Sugar

• Production shortfall will be bullish for prices

Cocoa

• Global production excepted to exceed demand by 220,000 metric tons next season

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