Lagos The Star of SSA Stock Markets in 2017


Friday, January 05, 2018 08:59AM / FBNQuest Research

The Lagos all-share index (NSEASI) was among the best performing indices globally in 2017 in local currency unit terms, and far outshone Nairobi (NSE 20) and Johannesburg (all-share). It gained 42.3% over the calendar year, compared with Jo’burg’s 17.5% and Nairobi’s 16.5%. The index was still in negative territory ytd in early May but then surged. Many offshore investors warmed to the CBN’s new fx window for investors and exporters (NAFEX). Above all, they felt comfortable that they could exit the market when they chose.

The surge last year took place in a fairly thin market. Daily turnover averaged just US$15.6m equivalent at the CBN rate, compared with US$9.5m in 2016 when the NSEASI retreated by -6.2%. Foreign investors’ share of transactions picked up once NAFEX developed some momentum, reaching 53% and 54% in October and November respectively.

The Nigerian market in 2017 enjoyed a lift from improved macro data and newsflow. The economy emerged from recession, oil production recovered from mid-year, reserves accumulation was impressive and the FGN successfully tapped the Eurobond market twice. 

Further, FGN bond yields have narrowed by +/- 300bps in the past four months, raising the possibility of a marked shift by domestic institutions to the equities market.   

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We can see the impact of politics in the chart. Jo’burg enjoyed an uptick in December after Cyril Ramaphosa won the election for the ANC leadership whereas Nairobi took a hit from Kenya’s lengthy, re-run presidential elections. 

In Nigeria’s run-up to elections in February 2019, we distinguish between “regular” polls and those that are unsettling, challenged in the courts and so close as to create the risk of violence. Relatively smooth elections without ideological issues should not upset the market unduly.   

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2017 Year End Review
1.       Global ETFs in 2017
2.      Stocks Trading at Their Nominal Value as at 29122017
3.      DANGSUGAR, INTBREW Top Gainers as MORISON, JAIZBANK Top Losers in 2017
4.      New Listings and Delistings in 2017
5.      Trading Statistics in 2017 – TRANSCORP, UBA Top Market Volume
6.      Argentina, Nigeria Lead as Best Performing Stock Markets in the World in 2017
7.      Stock You Should Not Touch – 63 Stocks Record No Price Movement in 2017
8.      Stocks Off and Near 52-Week Highs and Lows as at 221217
9.      Top 10 Policy Reforms in 2017
10.   Zimbabwe, Malawi Stock Markets Lead African Markets in 2017 as Ivorian BRVM-10 Top Losers
11.    Nigeria's Top Ten News Makers in 2017
12.   Nigeria’s Economic Indicators in 2017
13.   Market Movements in 2017 - Forex Reserves Up by 44.54%
14.   Foreign Portfolio Participation in Equity Trading in 2017
15.   Oil and Gas Sector – SEPLAT, ETERNA Top Gainers as FO Records -47.19% YTD Return
16.   Consumer Goods Sector – GUINNESS Records Over 3,000 PE Ratio
17.   Financial Services Sector – GUARANTY Records 40.52% PAT Margin as NESF Tops on EPS
18.   NSE ASI Performance Review and How Key Sectors Fared in 2017
19.   47 Financial Services Sector Stocks Are Penny Stocks in 2017
20.  Movers and Shakers in 2017 - DANGCEM, GUARANTY Record Growth in MKT CAP as FO, MOBIL Lead Otherwise
21.   DANGSUGAR, MAYBAKER and INTBREW Among Best Performing Stocks in 2017 

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