Sunday, November 27, 2016/Proshare Research
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended November 25, 2016 technically revealed waning bearish tendency while investors displayed active opportunistic buying tendency.
Also, an extensive analysis revealed a active accumulation pattern while investors displayed improved risk appetite, particularly in Financial Services, Conglomerates and Consumer Goods sectors.
In addition, volume analysis revealed active bargain tendency towards TRANSCORP, DIAMONDBNK, FLOURMILL and AFRIPRUD while investors sustained sell postures towards UAC-PROP, ETERNA, ZENITHBANK and STANBIC.
Nonetheless, investors displayed fresh bargain tendency in some active sector(s), particularly in Financial Services. Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Conglomerates sector(s). However, we observed sustained sell tendency in Services, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas and Agriculture sector(s)
Summarily, the bears dominated the week, depressing the key benchmark index by 204.15 points against 633.34 loss recorded in the previous week to close at 25,333.39- ASI remains battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50.
In addition, the All Share Index traded within the range of 25,517.00 (week-high) and 25,333.39 (week-low) to settle at 25,333.39- below previous week’s low (25,537.54) by 204.15- This indicates growing sell sentiments when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals active sell postures.
In the week just ended, market breadth closed positive at 1.00x against 0.29x recorded in the previous week on the back of waning sell sentiments.
Likely trends in the coming periods: We expect mixed sentiments to persist as Market RSI revealed significant decline in bargain strenght. However, the extreme oversold posture of market may incite opportunistic buying.
Technically, market sentiments during the bearish week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, Conglomerates and Healthcare sector(s), which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week.
On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger in, Industrial Goods, Services, Oil & Gas, Agriculture and Construction/Real Estate
Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.
THE BIG VOLUME
ACCESS experienced moderate bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +3.30% gain in the week against +3.80% gain recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained price recovery pattern with low-key bargain tendency, after a prolonged 16weeks sideways trading pattern to record -5.02% loss experienced between July 29th and November 11th 2016
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed improved modest bargain sentiments towards the stock while RSI and CCI revealed improved price momentum. The stock closed neutral in short-term but remained bearish in mid-long term periods, indicating growing presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.
Also, we observed moderate growth in bullish volume during the week, indicating modest accumulation from investors during the week.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to sustain uptrend pattern in the coming session, considering improved bargain tendency. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
FLOURMILL experienced moderate bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +20.90% gain in the week against -14.40% loss recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a fresh bargain tendency, following prolonged bearish run in the last 21 weeks to record -31.79% loss, experienced between July 1st and November 18th 2016.
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active bargain tendency towards the stock as RSI and CCI revealed sharp uptrend momentum. The stock closed neutral in short-term but remained bearish in mid-long term periods, indicating improved presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to reverse uptrend in the coming session, considering the weak demand postures observed during last session. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
FO experienced active sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -24.00% loss in the week against -20.90% loss recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained and growing sell-down tendency towards the stock in the last 40 weeks to record 81.64% loss, following 37weeks active rally of +122.08% experienced between June 4th 2015 and February 26th 2016.
Technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell-down trend with a sharp fall in price momentum while the stock closed bearish in both short-term and mid-long term periods. This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to sustain the sell sentiments in coming sessions, considering the active sell momentum experienced during the week. However, the extreme oversold posture of the stock may incite speculative trading soon. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis
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