Sunday, November 13, 2016/Proshare Research
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended November 11, 2016 technically revealed active pessimitic tendency while investors continue to display cautious approach towards equities.
Also, an extensive analysis revealed sustained distribution pattern while investors maintained modest opportunistic buying postures, particularly in Healthcare and Services sectors.
In addition, volume analysis revealed active sell tendency towards FIDELITYBK, WAPCO, NAHCO and OKOMUOILwhile investors displayed modest bargain postures towards AIRSERVICE, WEMABANK, CAP and LIVESTOCK.
Nonetheless, investors displayed fresh and growing sell tendency in some active sector(s), particularly in Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas and Conglomerates sector(s). However, we observed fresh and growing buy tendency in Healthcare and Services.
Summarily, the bears dominated the week, depressing the key benchmark index by 810.72 points against 312.61 loss recorded in the previous week to close at 26,170.08- ASI remains battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50.
In addition, the All Share Index traded within the range of 26,895.99 (week-high) and 26,170.08 (week-low) to settle at 26,170.08- below previous week’s low (26,981.60) by 810.72- This indicates growing sell sentiments when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals active sell postures.
In the week just ended, market breadth closed negative at 0.50x against 0.96x recorded in the previous week on the back of negative sentiments.
Likely trends in the coming periods: We expect mixed sentiments to persist as Market RSI revealed significant decline in bagain strenght. However, the extreme oversold posture of market may boost active opportunistic buying.
Technically, market sentiments during the bearish week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Healthcare and Services sector(s), which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week.
On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger in, Financial Services, Industrial Goods, Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas, Agriculture and Conglomerates
Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.
THE BIG VOLUME
GUARANTY experienced moderate sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -4.80% loss in the week against -5.40% loss recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained sell-down pattern in the last 8weeks to record -20.59% loss, following 24weeks rally of +89.16% experienced between April 8th and September 16th 2016
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell sentiments towards the stock while RSI and CCI revealed sharp fall in price momentum. The stock closed bearish in short-term but remained neutral in mid-long term periods, indicating growing presence of bears towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.
Also, we observed a significant growth in bearish volume during the week, indicating active distribution from investors during the week.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to sustain sell-down pattern in the coming session, considering weak bargain tendency. However, the price position within oversold threshold may incite speculative buying soon. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
AIRSERVICE experienced moderate bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +19.70% gain in the week against +15.50% gain recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained bargain momentum in the last 3weeks to record 52.00% gain, following prolonged sideways pattern of -4.31% loss, experienced between August 5th and October 21st 2016.
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active and growing bargain tendency towards the stock as RSI and CCI revealed sharp uptrend momentum. The stock closed bullish in both short-term and mid-long term periods, indicating sustained presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session, considering the active demand postures observed in the week. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
NAHCO experienced active sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -14.20% loss in the week against -0.70% loss recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained and growing sell-down tendency towards the stock in the last 23 weeks to record 57.33% loss, following 19weeks active rally of +65.85% experienced between January 15th and May 27th 2016.
Technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell-down trend with a sharp fall in price momentum while the stock closed bearish in both short-term and mid-long term periods. This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to sustain the sell sentiments in coming sessions, considering the active sell momentum and a lower breakout experienced during the week. However, the extreme oversold posture of the stock may incite speculative trading soon. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis
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Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.