NAFEX Rate Trends Higher as Offshores Take Profit on Bills

Proshare

Thursday, July 18, 2019   /  08:00AM  /  Zedcrest Capital / Header Image Credit: Moneycontrol.com

 

The NAFEX rate at the I&E window rose higher by 36k to N361.61/$ due to demand from offshores pressuring rates as high N362/$ during the session. Market turnover however moderated slightly by 18% to $279m.

Below are the highlights of trading activities in the Fixed Income and Forex Market on July 17, 2019.

 

Bonds

The FGN Bond market remained bullish, with the most demand on the short to mid end of the curve. Yields consequently declined further by c.7bps on the day.

We expect the market to remain slightly bullish tomorrow, despite release of the Q3 FGN Bond calendar, where the DMO indicated its intention to raise between N360bn – N480bn of the 5, 10 and 30-yr bonds in Q3 2019, N120bn above its (N255bn – N345bn) Q2 2019 target, and above the c.N305bn total issuance during the period.

 

Benchmark FGN Bonds

Description

Bid (%)

Offer (%)

Day Change (%)

14.50 15-Jul-21

13.44

12.46

(0.23)

16.39 27-Jan-22

13.60

12.99

(0.20)

12.75 27-Apr-23

13.69

13.43

(0.02)

14.20 14-Mar-24

13.89

13.13

0.18

13.53 23-Mar-25

13.65

13.29

(0.56)

12.50 22-Jan-26

14.24

13.67

0.18

16.29 17-Mar-27

14.10

13.74

0.10

13.98 23-Feb-28

13.72

13.64

(0.22)

12.15 18-Jul-34

14.23

14.04

(0.04)

12.40 18-Mar-36

14.16

14.04

0.04

16.2499 18-Apr-37

14.14

14.01

0.06

14.80 26-Apr-49

14.20

14.10

(0.08)


Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk

 

Treasury Bills

The T-bills market was relatively flat, with slight buys still observed on the long end of the curve, as market players awaited results of the NTB auction held during the session.

As expected, rates cleared significantly below their previous auction levels, but relatively within the current market levels, which connotes a relatively stable outlook for T-bill yields in the near term, even as some offshores take profit at current low levels.

 

NTB - 17 July 2019

Tenor

Rate (%)

Offer ('bn)

Sub ('bn)

Sale (’bn) 

91-days

9.74

5.85

29.15

5.85

182-days

10.75

26.60

69.63

26.60

364-days

11.14

74.60

374.77

74.60

Sou

Benchmark Treasury Bills

Description

Bid (%)

Offer (%)

Day Change (%)

18-Jul-19

10.00

5.00

0.00

1-Aug-19

10.50

9.10

0.00

12-Sep-19

10.60

9.70

0.00

3-Oct-19

10.60

9.70

(0.10)

14-Nov-19

10.80

9.95

0.10

5-Dec-19

10.85

10.05

0.05

2-Jan-20

10.85

10.30

0.00

6-Feb-20

11.15

10.90

(0.10)

19-Mar-20

11.15

10.90

(0.10)

2-Apr-20

11.10

10.80

(0.15)

14-May-20

11.15

10.90

(0.10)

04-Jun-20

11.20

10.95

0.15

Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk

 

Money Market

Rates in the money market was marginally higher by c.1pct as system liquidity fell by N100bn to c.N250bn. The OBB and OVN rates consequently ended the session at 3.86% and 4.50% respectively.

We expect rates to remain relatively stable tomorrow, barring a renewed OMO sale by the CBN.

 

Money Market Rates

 

Current (%)

Previous (%)

Open Buy Back (OBB)

3.86

2.50

Overnight (O/N)

4.50

3.07

Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest

 

FX Market

At the interbank, the Naira/USD rate remained stable at N306.95/$ (spot), and N357.70/$ (SMIS). At the parallel market, the cash and transfer rate remained stable at N358.10/$ and N361.50/$ respectively.

 

FX Market

 

Current (N/$)

Previous ( N/$)

CBN Spot

306.95

306.95

CBN SMIS

357.70

357.70

I&E FX Window

361.61

361.25

Cash Market

358.10

358.10

Transfer Market

361.50

361.50

Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC


Eurobonds

Demand Interests in the NGERIA Sovereigns remained robust, with yields lower by c.6bps on the day. We witnessed the most interest on the NGERIA 38s and 47s, which gained c.0.4pct on the day.

In the NGERIA Corps, we witnessed sustained demand on the ETINL 24s, FIDBAN 22s and SEPLLN 23s, with the most gains seen on the FIDBAN and SEPLLN.

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

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Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


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