Wednesday, June 28, 2017 5:40 PM / BMI Research
BMI View: Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in the next two years. Weak cocoa prices will weigh on export revenue in the short term, while robust investment in the country's infrastructure will be a key driver of import spending.
Weak cocoa prices and robust infrastructure spending will see Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit widen in future. The oversupply of cocoa after a number of West African producers enjoyed a strong harvest and demand in developed markets declined, has exerted downward pressure on global prices, which will squeeze proceeds from the crops in 2017.
Meanwhile, import spending will strengthen owing to progress in infrastructure investment and consumer product demand.
We forecast the current account deficit to widen to 3.8% and 3.7% of GDP in 2017 and 2018 respectively, up from an estimated 3.1% in 2016.
Cocoa Trouble Will Squeeze Exports
While Côte d'Ivoire will continue to run a trade surplus, weak cocoa prices will constrain export growth in 2017.
Reduced demand in developed markets led to a steep fall in cocoa prices in H216, which will weigh on export revenues in 2017. Local producers have been hurt by oversupply and order cancellations.
Looking further ahead to 2018, we expect this will subsequently lead to the deterioration of stocks, which will ultimately limit the supply.
As a result, our Agribusiness team expect tighter supply will contribute to some rebalancing in the global market in late 2017, with Côte d'Ivoire set to regain some of its losses through increased revenues in 2018, despite a decline in volumes.
While cocoa has traditionally been Côte d'Ivoire's primary export, in 2017 we anticipate oil exports will ramp up in future as the short-term outlook for the sector is bright.
Our Oil & gas team forecast a 7.7% rise in oil production in 2017 due to a number of new fields coming online. Although these gains are to be pared back in 2018 due to natural decline rates and a lack of new projects, there is moderate upside risk owing to further development phases at operating fields.
Investment and Consumer Demand To Boost Imports
Investment in power and infrastructure will keep imports elevated in the coming years. Significant volumes of capital imports such as cement and machinery will be required in order to progress with construction of major projects.
Construction of a second container terminal at the Port of Abidjan, which began in 2015, will cost an estimated USD962mn and will likely be completed in 2020.
Furthermore, two power plants, Soubré and Songon – costing USD654mn and USD558mn respectively – will be under construction in 2017, and will likely take a number of years.
In addition to imports related to capital projects, we note that growth in consumer demand is also likely to remain robust.
Our Autos team forecast car sales growth of 10.5% in 2017, and given that Côte d'Ivoire's domestic car manufacturing is very weak, we expect this demand will bolster imports.
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