Rising Inflation And Impending Sukuk Supply Weigh On Bond Trading Activity

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Friday, May 21, 2020  / 09:13 AM  / By Zedcrest Capital / Header Image Credit: Artemis


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FGN Bonds

It was another fun day for bond bulls, as activities picked up on the bonds offered at the previous day's auction shrugging off April 2020 inflation figures which dropped today. The 2023s and 2050s were the most actively traded papers, trading lower the auction stop rates (20bps and 8bps respectively). The 2035s, on the other hand, saw little love despite being better offered than its peers (2034s and 2036s) at 11.55%. Other papers saw little activity, as supply in the form of the N150Bn Sukuk offered by the DMO loomed in investors minds. Consequently, yields expanded by an average of c.8bps across the benchmark curve.

We expect current market sentiments to persist to close the week, as market participants continue to cherry-pick across the bond curve ahead of the long weekend.


Benchmark FGN Bonds

Description

Bid (%)

Offer (%)

Day Change (%)

 

14.50 15-Jul-21

7.92

4.75

(0.05)

 

16.39 27-Jan-22

9.11

5.29

(0.05)

 

12.75 27-Apr-23

9.54

8.75

0.18

 

14.20 14-Mar-24

9.55

8.40

0.14

 

13.53 23-Mar-25

9.33

8.51

0.23

 

12.50 22-Jan-26

10.58

10.02

0.00

 

16.29 17-Mar-27

11.15

10.61

(0.01)

 

13.98 23-Feb-28

11.22

10.82

0.00

 

14.55 26-Apr-29

11.45

11.05

0.16

 

12.15 18-Jul-34

11.71

11.29

0.06

 

12.40 18-Mar-36

11.73

11.36

0.04

 

16.2499 18-Apr-37

11.83

11.35

0.14

 

14.80 26-Apr-49

12.70

12.40

0.16

 

  

Treasury Bills

The Treasury bills market continued on its calm note, albeit better offers on most of the OMO maturities as market hoped for an OMO auction issue by the Apex bank. December and February maturities were offered around 5.90% and 6.85% respectively, improved from 4.95% and 5.90% offered the previous day. Yields expanded largely across the OMO curve by an average of c.60bps.

The NTB space also stayed muted for the most part of the trading session as offers remained very limited with small tranches passing through the belly of the NTB curve.

We expect market activity to remain poor as limited supply in NTB and OMO bills persist.


Benchmark OMO Bills

Description

Bid (%)

Offer (%)

Day Change (%)

NGOM 6/4/2020

6.00

3.00

1.00

NGOM 7/2/2020

7.00

3.00

0.00

NGOM 8/13/2020

7.00

4.50

0.00

NGOM 9/3/2020

7.00

5.00

0.00

NGOM 10/1/2020

8.00

5.50

1.00

NGOM 11/03/2020

8.00

5.00

1.00

NGOM 12/01/2020

9.00

5.00

1.00

NGOM 01/05/2021

9.00

7.00

0.00

NGOM 02/02/2021

10.00

7.00

1.00

NGOM 03/02/21

10.00

7.00

1.00

 

 

Benchmark NTBills

Description

Bid (%)

Offer (%)

Day Change (%)

NIGTB 2-Jul-20

4.00

0.10

0.00

NIGTB 1-Oct-20

5.00

0.10

1.00

NIGTB 12-Nov-20

5.00

0.10

1.00

NIGTB 14-Jan-21

5.00

0.20

0.00

NIGTB 11-Feb-21

5.00

0.25

0.00

 


Money Markets

Interbank rates slumped further as the interbank market remained awash with liquidity, opening the day at c.N539.38bn positive. Rates dipped by c.21bps on the average, as OBB and OVN rates closed the day at 1.42% and 2.00% respectively.

We expect rates to pick up to close the week as expected debits (Retail FX and Bond Auction) hit the system.

Money Market Rates

 

Current (%)

Previous (%)

Open Buy Back (OBB)

1.42

1.67

Overnight (O/N)

2.00

2.17

 

FX Market

At the Interbank, most of the rates remained unchanged except at the I&E FX window which is still largely under-supplied with very little activity of approx. $22.29million passing through the market while most banks were still bided between 383.00 and 387.00 Naira to the dollar.

FX Market

Current (N/$)

Previous ( N/$)

CBN Spot

361.00

361.00

CBN SMIS

380.69

380.69

I&E FX Window

386.50

386.42

Cash Market

460.00

460.00

Transfer Market

470.00

470.00

 

Eurobonds

The rally in the NGERIA Sovereign tickers fizzled out in today's trade session, as we saw improved offers in the market as some players looked to book profits from gains over the past ten days. Nevertheless, the sovereign papers remained strong and remained unperturbed by the new supply coming from Egypt. Consequently, yields dropped by an average of c.4bps across the sovereign yield curve.

 
The NGERIA Corps had a lacklustre session, with mostly bids seen across most of the tracked papers pushing yields further down D/D. The ZENITH 2022s and UBANL 2022s with the biggest gainers of the day, as yields dipped 28ps and 15bps respectively.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


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