Wednesday, January 13, 2021 / 12:30 PM /Avery Wright / Header Image
One of the most interesting trends surfacing in the crypto industry today is the increasing likelihood of Bitcoin emerging as the next global reserve currency - something that Bitcoin fundamentalists have been preaching for the last decade.
With the combination of transparency and decentralized trust brought on by the blockchain, individuals and companies across the world have had the opportunity to participate in a free financial system since the emergence of Bitcoin some twelve years ago.
Since the dawn of Blockchain, trust in this trustless system has been slowly rising with a diverse range of individuals, institutional investors, and even world governments investing in the technology and the various tokens in circulation today. One result of this has been the free flow of liquidity across borders in a remarkably revolutionary way - satisfying the ever-growing need for a more efficient global financial system.
Mr. Yoon Kim is an accomplished and dynamic crypto analyst and strategist. He successfully built the TMT sector of Tremblant Capital and helped the company increase its AUM from $200 million to $5 billion in five-years' time. He then launched Vestry Capital, a global TMT equity fund as the head of which he served as an advisor and consultant to various hedge funds and blockchain projects.
With his 20 years of experience in investing and in the blockchain industry, Mr. Kim acutely understands these shifts in the global financial system.
For that reason, one of the key topics of conversation during The New Normal of Blockchain & Cryptocurrency panel which AIKON organized in late October was "where the future lies for the USD and its long-term position as the world's reserve currency".
Mr. Kim indicated that the USD losing some of its standing in the global financial system and possibly its status as the reserve currency as an inevitable product of blockchain's accessibility and decentralization.
As Mr. Kim has pointed out, the current financial system has been in place since World War II - 75 years now! On average, global financial systems have typically lasted for ~70-80 years each. We are, then, coming to the end of an era and can stand with bated breath awaiting the next financial revolution.
Moreover, history has shown that significant global events often precede the breakdown of institutionalized financial systems. For the Pax Britannica, it was World War I. For the global financial system, we have today, it may very well be the impact of COVID-19 on the world economy.
Having been a staple of the global economy, and considering the turmoil, the US has endured throughout 2020, USD is in serious danger of being dislodged from the position of power it has enjoyed over the last three-quarters of the 21st century.
Given the amount of influence that US politics now has on the rest of the world and being mindful that the level of engagement that USD (as a global reserve currency) will have on the rest of the world after the presidential election will probably never reach the levels from 40 - 50 years ago when it was at its peak. With the decrease in the level of engagement of the US with the world economy after the Soviet Union dissolution, what we see now are the effects of the politics that took 20 years to materialize.
In that sense, Mr. Kim pointed out that it is very probable that USD is about to be dethroned as the most important currency in the world.
And while there are those who would like to see the Chinese RMB take its place, Mr. Kim considers this very unlikely to happen. For one, dethroning USD from the position of the global reserve currency would put a significant amount of pressure and responsibility on the Chinese financial system, responsibilities the country seems to be shunning presently. For instance, China has been accused of intentionally increasing demand which then leads to an increase in the prices of international commodities.
Therefore, the question is what will supplant USD as the global reserve currency or at least become an alternate reserve currency running in parallel with USD?
Mr. Kim stated that Bitcoin seems to fit perfectly, especially taking into account the timing of its rise, as well as its ability to cross borders with very little effort.
As political and economic relations between the US and China continue to collapse, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that either the USD or RMB will be viewed as a viable global reserve currency going forward.
Bitcoin may prove to be the thing that both nations, as well as the rest of the world, decide they can live within the upcoming decades.
While the Chinese government is actively restricting crypto trades, there is massive support within the government for cryptocurrencies and blockchain. This implies that they have a long-term strategy in place, where Bitcoin would be used to dislodge the USD as the global reserve currency.
In the same way, we're seeing the causality of the US global economics politics conducted in the past 20 years and its effect on the situation now, there is a good chance that 20 years from now we will have Bitcoin as the reserve currency of the world simply because it will not be controlled by any one nation and its financial system.
Should Mr. Kim's predictions come to be realized, individual and corporate players in this new market that is quickly gaining momentum should be preparing for the shift.