After delivering a stellar ROAE of c.23.4% in 2019, we expect UBA's ROAE to decline to 12.1% in 2020E. Management has not provided guidance for 2020E. However, we have cut our 2020E EPS forecast by 11% because the bank's Q1 2020 PAT missed our forecast by a wide margin due to a negative result of -N15.4bn in other comprehensive income (OCI).
Dangote Cement (DangCem) delivered a decent underlying Q1 2020 performance, posting PBT growth of 12% y/y to N88.1bn. The Nigerian business recorded its highest quarterly sales of N179.3bn (up +6% y/y), supported by an average price increase of c.5% y/y to N44,633/tonnne. Nonetheless, we have cut our sales and EPS forecasts for 2020E by around -5% and -10% respectively, given a more subdued outlook for cement sales as countries fight to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) created a surprise yesterday by cutting the policy rate by 100bps to 12.50% on a majority vote (seven to three). The minority wanted additional easing, and so underlined the dramatic change in sentiment from the unanimous vote for an unchanged stance in March. The other policy parameters were unchanged.