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Sentiment Analysis Report – W/E February 08, 2013

Category: Cap Mkt Sentiments


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Sentiment Analysis Report – W/E February 08, 2013

 

Sunday, February 10, 2013/ Proshare Research
 

 

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended February 08, 2013 technically revealed continued optimistic trading along with sustained speculative tendency amid increased intra-day market price volatility in the investors’ trading pattern- This suggests sustained moderate optimism on the Nigerian bourse  when compared with previous trading pattern.
 

Meanwhile, further analysis revealed active anticipatory bargain trend throughout the week with sustained impressive accumulation trend on the back of continued committment witnessed towards investment in equities accross the board.
 

In addition, it was observed that market holds its support level firm to break above 33,000.00 psychological line while trading significantly above 4yrs high of 30,924.97 basis points recorded on June 2nd 2009. The ASI settled at 33,313.49 on sustained impressive accumulation trend- a prolonged overbought posture as revelaed by market RSI.
 

Nevertheless, sustained moderate value investing impacted the market outlook considerably as extensive anlaysis revealed growing intra-day market price volatility along with increased speculative trading.
 

In the week just ended, market breadth remained fortified  on the back of sustained risk appetite witnessed across the board majorly towards the active and value stocks.
 

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside with significant deline in activity level as sideline attendants appeared active, yet remain a significant feature.

 


Prescription and the likely expectation in the coming periods:  we envisage susttained moderate optimism on the bourse as we expect investors to hold grounds in anticipation of impressive Q4’12 earnings report while we expect the key benchmark indices to hold its support level above 33,000 pschological line.
 


Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium and Large CAP categories all  sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in

Financial Services, Industrial Goods, Healthcare, Services, Agriculture and Consumer Goods in that order which further revealed the sectors investors patronised in the week.

 

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments appeared weak in  Oil & Gas, Construction/Real Estate, Conglomerates and ICT sector(s)

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Trend & Direction

 

We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like  RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

 

 

THE BIG VOLUME

TRANSCORP experienced continued bargain tendency and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record +14.0% gain against +28.8% gain recorded in the previous week - The outlook in the last 8weeks revealed sustained bargain tendency towards the stock with +79.12% gain to hit above 34months high, following the -20.87% loss recorded between September 28th and December 14th 2012.

Technical analysis revealed sustained moderate optimism towards the stock in the recent time as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term, indicating strong willingness from investors to pay higher for the stock in the near term.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to experience short term price correction soon. However, we advise cautious bargain while we advise HOLD position as investors’ sentiments remained positive. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



 

UNITYBNK experienced improved bargain tendency and positive sentiments in the week to record +37.9% gain against -8.3% loss recorded in the previous week- The outlook in the last 4weeks revealed continued strong bargain tendency towards the stock with + 82.00% price appreciation to hit above 29months high, following 6weeks of no price movement experienced between November 30th 2012 and January 11th 2013.

Technical indicators revealed sustained moderate optimism towards the stock in the recent time, with strong potential to extend uptrend, as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term- this indicates strong willingness from investors to acquire the stock in the near term.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to extend uptrend in the coming session, though the stock appeared trading at its top. Notwithstanding, we advise HOLD position as investors sentiments remained positive while we solicit cautious treading due to overbought position of the stock. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis

 


 

THE GAINERS

WEMABANK experienced continued active bargain tendency and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record +59.8% gain against +31.4% gain recorded in the previous week. The outlook in the last 7weeks revealed growing bargain tendency towards the stock with +194.00% price appreciation to hit above 2yrs, just as we had envisaged in the previous week, following the 7weeks downtrend with -19.35% loss recorded between November 2nd and December 12th 2012.

Indicators revealed sustained strong optimism towards the stock in the recent time, with strong potential to extend uptrend, as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term, indicating strong willingness from investors to acquire the stock in the near term.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to extend uptrend in the coming session, though the stock appeared trading at its top. Notwithstanding, we advise HOLD position in long term as investors sentiments remained positive while we solicit cautious treading due to overbought position. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis


 

ROYALEX experienced continued bargain tendency and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record +52.5% gain against +5.2% gain recorded in the previous week- the outlook in the last three weeks revealed growing bargain trend with +86.00% price appreciation to hit above 34months high, following 13weeks of no price movement.

Indicators revealed sustained moderate optimism towards the stock in the recent time, with strong potential to extend uptrend, as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term, indicating strong willingness from investors to acquire the stock in the near term.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to extend uptrend in the coming session, though the stock appeared trading at its top. Notwithstanding, we advise HOLD position in short term as investors sentiments remained positive while we solicit cautious treading due to overbought position. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis


 

 

 

THE LOSERS

ETERNAOIL experienced active sell tendency and fresh negative sentiments in the week to record -9.9% loss as against +15.5% gain recorded in the previous week- The outlook revealed short term price correction in the week, following the +204.61% price appreciation recorded between November 23rd 2012 and February 1st 2013.

Indicators revealed sustained moderate optimism towards the stock in the recent time as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term, indicating strong willingness from investors to acquire the stock in the near term.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with moderate reliability, to retrace the downtrend, considering the increased presence of the bulls during last session. Nevertheless, we advise HOLD position in long term as sentiments remained positive. Meanwhile, we solicit cautious treading due to slight weakness in bargain posture. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis

 

 

 

JOHNHOLT experienced continued sell tendency and sustained negative sentiments in the week to record -13.60% loss against -21.41% loss in the previous week,  - The outlook recorded in the last 14 weeks revealed continued downtrend with -73.68% loss, just as we had envisaged in the previous report.

Indicators revealed sustained strong pessimism towards the stock in the recent time as the stock closed bearish in both short and mid-long term, indicating strong willingness from investors to dump the stock in the last few weeks.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to extend the downtrend, considering the sustained presence of the bears during last session. In addition, we advise against HOLD position as sentiments strongly remained negative. Meanwhile, the depressed posture may ignite short term retracement anytime soon. Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis








 

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.

 



Tags: Sentiment Analysis,  Market Sentiments,  Due Diligence,  Technical Analysis,  Bollinger band,  Fibonacci,  Candlestick,  Money Flow Index,  Proshare Research,  The Analyst,  Bullish Trend,  Bearish Trend,  Weak Bargain,  Profit Taking,  Short-termists,  Price Correction,  Trend Reversals,  Volume Trend,  Price Performance,  Financial Services,  proshareng.com,  Nigerian Stock Exchange,  Equities Market,  NCM,  Investors,  Shareholders,  Stock Recommendations , 



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