Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2011 & Economic Outlook for 2012 - 2015
Category: Nigerian Economy
September 14, 2012 / NBS
In the Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2011 & Economic Outlook for 2012 -2015, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) aims to provide policy-makers, researchers, investors and the general public of its assessment of the Nigerian economy in the past year, and the likely trends of key macroeconomic indicators in the current year and future years.
The objective here is not to contest the assertions in similar reviews and outlooks already in the public domain, but rather to add to the discourse on the direction of economic development as Nigeria aims to become one of the 20 largest economies (as measured by Gross Domestic Product, GDP) by the year 2020.
Unlike previous reports therefore, the focus of this report is on key Macroeconomic Statistics including GDP, inflation, and trade which are quick pointers to the growth and health of the economy by itself, and when compared to the rest of the world.
This short report combines a qualitative review of economic developments in 2011 with quantitative inputs into a Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR) model in order to arrive at reasonable forecasts of the levels and growth of the aforementioned macroeconomic variables. Based on quarterly data from 1996-2011, economic growth is projected to be 6.5% in 2012, a decline from 7.63% recorded in 2011.
As the national statistical office, and the custodian of official statistics in Nigeria, NBS continues to strive for improvements in the delivery of its mandate which includes data production, coordinating the National Statistical System (NSS), advising the Federal, States and Local Governments on matters relating to statistical developments; as well as developing and promoting the use of statistical standards and appropriate methodologies. This review has benefitted from the latest (2011) statistics in order to satisfy at least 2 of these functions, i.e., advocacy and data dissemination. It is my sincere hope that this report will facilitate evidence-based policy at all levels and enhance decision-making by various users.
While hoping that this report will engender a positive discourse on the direction of the economy and macroeconomic policy in 2012, I would like to convey my sincere gratitude to all producers and providers of data all around the country, whose valuable inputs made the publication of this report possible. Finally, the Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2011 & Economic Outlook for 2012 – 2015 is a product of the hard work and commitment of the management and staff at NBS, all of whom are gratefully appreciated.
Dr. Yemi Kale Statistician General of the Federation/Chief Executive Officer National Bureau of Statistics May 2012.