Sentiment Analysis Report – W/E August 17, 2012

Category: Cap Mkt Sentiments

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Sentiment Analysis Report – W/E August 17, 2012

Sunday, August 19, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended August 17, 2012 technically revealed high specualtive tendency and increased risk appetite along with sustained moderate pessimistic trading amid mixed sentiments in the investors’ trading pattern as against increased pessimistic trading amid sutained speculative tendency obeserved in the previous week’s performance.

Further analysis revealed low-key price correction and growing volatiltiy as market continued to slide into trading range on the back of weak bargain drive observed in the week despite improved rsik appetite towards penny stocks.

In the week just ended, sustained mild sell tendency observed towards heavy counters in the face of growing speculative trading amid mixed sentiments impacted market outlook considerably. Meanwhile, accumulation level declined with corresponding growth in distribution level in the active sectors.

Nevertheless, the moderate sell tendency outweighed the weak bargain side while the continued weight loss experienced by blue chip stocks and heavy counters on the back of active short term activities contributed to the negative posture of the market.

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside decreeased activity level as sideline attendants appeared taking positions, yet remain a significant feature.

Prescription and the likely expectation in the coming periods: The resilient posture of the key benchmark indices above 23,000 psychological line may yeild impressive outlook in the coming sessions as the market loses start to thin out while it may gain momentum against its 52weeks resistance.

Notwithstanding, the sustained risk appetite coupled with short term trading propensity of the invetors towards penny stocks may continue to increase market flunctuations in the coming periods considerably.

Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium and Large CAP categories in Conglomerates, Healthcare, Agriculture, Consumer Goods and Services sector(s) in that order which further revealed the sectors investors patronised in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the Industrial Goods, Financial Services, Construction/Real Estate and Oil & Gas sector(s)as sell sentiments was stronger in the sector(s).

Stock Trend & Direction

We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

FIRSTBANK experienced improved moderate bargain tendency and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record modest gain of 3.5% against meagre gain of 0.7% recorded in the previous week- the outlook revealed sustained uptrend, despite lacklustre trading pattern observed in recent time. The stock extends 8weeks gain by 24.25% while it settled above 58weeks high of N12.49kobo recorded on July 7th 2011.

The stock recorded huge bullish volume to top market volume for the week while it closed bullish in both short and mid-long term period, indicating positive sentiments as revealed by price moving average.

Also, growing bargain tendency was observed towards the stock as revealed by MACD, buttressed by uptrend momentum as revealed by RSI while money flow index experienced similar trend amid moderate accumulation trend.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is moderate possibility for the stock to extend uptrend as incoming sentiments appeared positive. However, trends reversal is not in doubt as the sustained lacklustre trading pattern may succumb to sell tendency. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

DIAMOND BANK experienced sustained weak bargain drive and negative sentiments in the week to record -2.2% loss against modest gain of +1.1% recorded in the previous week- the outlook suggests short term retracement, following the 8weeks uptrend with price appreciation of 26.05% recorded.

The stock recorded huge bearish volume to close among active stocks in the week while it closed neutral and bearish in both short and mid-long term period respectively, indicating moderate negative sentiments towards the stock as revealed by price moving average. Also, MACD revealed growing sell tendency to buttress the negative sentiments further.

However, the price gained uptrend momentum in the last session as revealed by RSI with similar trend in money flow index and accumulation pattern, suggesting sell tendency may thin-out soon.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is low possibility for the stock to sustain the uptrend momentum recorded in the last session as the incoming sentiments appeared mixed. However, the bulls may take advantage of feeble decline in sell pressure observed in the last session. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

THE GAINERS

EVANSMEDexperienced growing bargain tendency on strong note and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record +14.3% gain as against modest gain of +5.00% recorded in the previous week- The outlook revealed growing bargain drive and improved investors' loyalty towards the stock, extending 10weeks uptrend with 140.00% price appreciation to maintain strong hold above 52weeks high of N0.98kobo recorded on august 12th 2011.

The stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term period, indicating strong positive sentiments as revealed by price moving average. Also, MACD revealed strong and growing bargain tendency towards the stock, buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger band by 5.9%- an indication of possible continuation of the uptrend.

More so, the low volume trend revealed the hold position of the investors while money inflow index maintained strong northward trend amid sustained weak accumulation pattern observed.

However, the stock appeared overbought trading at its top as revealed by RSI while the price position above upper Bollinger band buttressed this further.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is increased chance for extension of the uptrend recorded so far. However, trend reversal is not in doubt as the overbought posture of the stock with 140% gain in the last 10weeks could ignite profit taking tendency. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

INTBREW experienced improved bargain trend and sustained positive sentiments in the week to record +14.6% gain against 7.1% gain recorded in the previous week- the outlook revealed continued bargain trend in the last 3weeks with 28.17% price appreciation, following the 5% loss recorded in one-week bearish rally, while the stock closed at N7.28kobo above 19months high of N6.84kobo.

The stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term period, indicating sustained positive sentiments towards the stock as revealed by price moving average while the bullish posture of MACD also revealed growing bargain tendency to buttress the positive sentiments further.

Also, the price closed above upper Bollinger band by 7.2% to indicate strong upward trend while the strong uptrend momentum buttressed this further as revealed by RSI position, indicating increased chance for the stock to extend uptrend. Meanwhile, the money flow index closed northward with continued moderate accumulation pattern.

However, the stock appeared trading at its top within overbought range as suggested by RSI while the price position above upper Bollinger band buttressed this further.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has increased chance to extend price uptrend, considering the growing bargain tendency observed in the week while the incoming sentiments appeared positive. However, the overbought posture of the stock may attract short term retracement. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

THE LOSERS

BAGCO experienced growing sell tendency and sustained negative sentiments in the week to record -11.8% loss as against -1.1% loss recorded in the previous month- the outlook revealed sustained low-key bargain tendency towards the stock in the last 12weeks as the stock maintained gradual fall to record -16.67% loss, following the year high of N2.10kobo recorded on June 1st 2012.

The stock closed bearish in both short and mid-long term period, indicating strong bearish sentiments towards the stock as revealed by price moving average.

Also, the bearish posture of MACD revealed strong sell tendency of the investors while the stock sets to break its year support level and appeared depressed at oversold region as revealed by RSI. The money flow index plunged significantly amid continued distribution pattern.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is moderate chance for the continuation of downtrend while the incoming sentiments appeared bearish. However, the depressed posture of the stock may incite short term retracement. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

CONOIL experienced continued weak bargain tendency and sustained negative sentiments in the week to record -5.0% loss as against -9.8% loss recorded in the previous week- the outlook revealed sustained short term retracement as the stock plunged by -19.07% in the last 3weeks, from its 5months high of N27.00kobo recorded on July 27^th 2012, following the two weeks rally experienced between 13^th to 20^th July 2012.

The stock closed neutral in both short and mid-long term period, indicating weak bargain trend while the stock is yet to slip into bearish mode as revealed by price moving average.

The bearish posture of the MACD with bearish divergence buttressed this further, indicating increased chance to extend downtrend as the stock sets to slip into oversold region as revealed by RSI. Also, the stock experienced continued distribution while the money flow index closed battered in the negative zone.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the stock has moderate possibility to extend the downtrend while the incoming sentiments appeared bearish. However, the depressed posture of the stock may attractive short term rally. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.