Analysis of the market activity in the week ended April 5th 2012 technically revealead positive sentiments laced with speculative tendency and low optimisms in the investors’ trading pattern as against bearish and high pessimism observed in the previous week performance. – a better performance as more of accumulation was done in the week.
In the week, more of fresh moderate bargain sentiments was observed across the baord as market sentiment turned positive, though towards blue chips and value stocks majorly. However, continued mild sell tendency was experienced in few major sectors as speculators seem to be incharge of market direction.
Also, there was a significant increasein optimistic activity of the market against significant decline recorded last week. This buttressed the fresh moderate bargain sentiments observed in some sectors as noted above.
However, the indecisive posture of the market is still high, but reduced activity was observed as sideline attendants appeared taking positions subtly. Notwithstanding, the low risk appetite and the current unstable trend remained a pressing factor as sideline attendant is significant.
Nevertheless, the depressed postures of equity prices observed across the board might incite active speculative trading- a pointer to likely volatility in the new week.
Also, it was technically revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured blue chips of Medium and Large CAP categories in the Conglomerates, Financial Serives Construction/Real Estate and Agriculture sectors in that order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week.
On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods,Industrial Goods and Services sectors in that order as sell sentiment was strong in the sectors.
Stock Trend & Direction
Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.
THE BIG VOLUME
DIAMOND BANKexperienced moderate bargain sentiments in the week to record 6.7% gain against the -4.0% loss recorded in the previous week.
More so, the stock recorded positive sentiments in the recent time. Though, on a weak bargain drive- The weak bargain trend suggests a cautious trading pattern. This was revealed in the volume trend, trading above its moving average considerably on a positive and consistent growing momentum, indicating continued accumulation throughout the week.
However, the candlestick pattern suggests possible reversal signal, though the reliability is low and this requires next lower opening position to be confirmed as the price closed flat in the last session. Meanwhile, MACD revealed bullish mode in the last session as the price closed above signal line.
Technically, a cautious approach is advised as the moving average revealed a weak price moving momentum while the price closed neutral in short but stayed bearish in long term. The RSI buttressed the weak momentum as the trend maintained horizontal trend.
Technical conclusion on the sentiments: there was a continued positive sentiment towards the stock buttressed by bullish mode revealed by MACD while the 214% volume surge above volume moving average in the last session showed increased interest towards the stock.
However, a cautious trading is advised as a weak reversal signal is formed according to the candlestick pattern. If the stock opens southward in the next session, the reversal is certain. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
GUARANTYexperienced a moderate bargain in the week to record 7.5% gain against -5.7% loss recorded in the previous week-
The stock enjoyed a moderate bargain sentiment in the week and ended the week with speculative trading pattern.
More so, the trend remains bullish as suggested by MACD while the stock is trading above signal line. Similarly, the price moving average revealed a bullish trend in short and long term period.
However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish, considering the candlestick pattern which suggests a trend reversal-(short term reversal), buttressed by the bearish day experienced in the last session.
Also, the money flow index closed southward in the last trading session as distribution sets in buttressed by a bearish volume while the RSI showed a weak strength.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bearish. We advised a cautious bargain as short term price reversal is possible. The last trading session was dominated by the bears according to the candlestick pattern while we observed distribution on the last trading day with corresponding bearish volume.
AGLEVENTexperienced a strong bullish week to record 19.8% gain against -4.5% loss recorded in the previous week.
We observed a very strong uptrend momentum as the stock is trading outside upper Bollinger bands. Though, the stock recorded more of bearish volume.
Also, we observed a fresh bullish interest towards the stock in the last trading session with a corresponding bullish volume buttressed by bullish mode revealed by MACD with sharp northward movement in money flow index
Notwithstanding, the stock is trading at overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger bands while the price closed neutral and bearish in short and long term respectively as revealed by price moving averages.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock is due for correction, considering the overbought position of the stock as revealed by RSI. However, the stock may sustain the uptrend, considering the strong bullish sentiments witnessed in the week buttressed by huge bullish volume recorded in the last trading session. We advised a cautious trading while a lower opening in the next session could incite the price correction as noted above.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
OKOMUOILexperienced a strong bullish week to record 19.6% gain against 15.7% gain recorded in the previous week- an improved performance and sustained uptrend was observed.
A very strong bargain tendency was observed towards the stock in the week with maximum opening and maximum close.
Also, the stock is in a strong bullish mode as revealed by MACD while the moving averages revealed a bullish trend in both short and mid-long term period. Though, there was a very low volume- this suggests hold position of investors throughout the session while there was strong money inflow towards the stock.
However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish as the stock is overdue for correction, considering its overbought posture as revealed by RSI buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger bands.
More so, the last candlestick pattern was a reversal signal which suggests the bears are taking hold of the stock, buttressed with corresponding bearish volume which closed above volume moving average. A short term profit taking season is looming.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bearish, considering the overbought position of the stock while the profit taking tendency already started subtly in the last session as suggested by the candlestick pattern buttressed by bearish volume which closed above moving average. A short term price correction may commence anytime soon.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
JAPAULOILexperienced a continued strong bearish week to record -16.4% loss against 10.7% loss recorded in the previous week- a sustained downtrend was observed.
There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock as the price is losing maximally at the moment while the stock broke its all time support of N0.61 to record new low of N0.56.
The MACD revealed a strong bearish mode while the price moving average revealed a bearish trend in both short and mid-long term.
More so, the stock is in a depressed state, trading within oversold region buttressed by price position below bottom Bollinger bands. The money flow index closed far south while investors continued to sell out their positions as observed in the volume trend which remained bearish throughout the week.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is bearish and likely to sustain the bearish status for awhile, considering money flow index level at negative side.
Nevertheless, the depressed posture of the stock, trading at all time low could incite trend reversal as the stock appeared bottomed out.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
CADBURYexperienced a bearish week with a loss of -14.2% against 14.9% gain recorded in the previous week- a price correction in form of profit booking was observed.
A short term price correction was observed in the week, but the emerging sentiments appeared positive as moderate buying was recorded in the last trading session.
Though, MACD still revealed a bearish mode with a similar outlook in volume trend while the stock closed neutral in both short and mid-long term period as revealed by moving averages.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared positive, though with low reliability as the volume traded closed bearish which means sell tendency is still in control.
However, the candlestick revealed weak incoming bargain sentiment as the stock is likely to establish support base around N10.85 while the money flow index closed positive.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volum
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