February 18, 2012 / daminaadvisors
With Boko Haram committing more and more atrocities over a wider geographic area, it is becoming increasingly clear that President Goodluck Jonathan’s election campaign promises to focus on economic reforms, particularly of the power sector, will remain at a standstill as his government grapples with the complex security challenges that Boko Haram presents.
This looks much like what happened in Colombia in the 1990s, foreign investors will begin to demand a credible anti-terrorist program as part of the government’s economic reform agenda before making significant investments in Nigeria .
President Jonathan’s re-election in 2014 may itself be at risk.
So far, despite strenuous presidential declarations about how the government is reducing the capacities of Boko Haram daily, the elusive group continues on the attack, seeking to ignite a sectarian religious conflict in the country.
Bureaucratic inertia and organogram overlaps between the various military, policing and intelligence agencies have prevented the president from developing a comprehensive and coherent approach to dealing with Boko Haram.
West Africa’s porous land borders and the easy availability of small arms in the region, a consequence of some of the regions recent civil conflicts, raises the risks that if Boko Haram, with its international connections to Al Qaeda, metastasizes, it could pose a major security problem to other countries in West Africa. …
Kindly contact the authors to get access to a more comprehensive report on Boko Haram and the complex challenges facing President Jonathan in 2012.
Managing Director & Chief Analyst, Frontier Markets
Nicole Elise Kearse Esq.
Deputy Managing Director, Head of Transactional & Cross Border Risks